J3 2024 Mid-Season Review
J3 2024 Mid-Season Review
Omiya Ardija climb well clear to the top. Grueling season so far for Iwate Grulla Morioka.
Hello and welcome to the first ever J3 review!
For those unfamiliar with my work, I take a detailed look at each and every team with both data and my eyes. This is a shortened version of my popular J1 reviews!
J3 is the league that I’ve watched the least so this is going to be the shortest of the mid-season reviews. I would love to watch more but unfortunately there are only 24 hours in a day!
This review goes up to MATCHDAY 19 only! I won’t mention Matchday 20 at all here.
This review consists of:
The league table.
I got a bit into depth on a number of teams that I have watched.
A section on the different types of data viz: Explanations and link to the viz for every team.
Some notes, warnings, disclaimers, etc.:
All the data stuff is done with R. The player radars are courtesy of Ben Griffis.
All the tactical stuff is created using Tacticalista.
To keep up to date with all of what’s happening in the J.League, I made a giant Twitter thread of lots of cool informed people to follow on Twitter for English language/international J.League content. You can find it here!
All of the shots and xG related stuff you see in the viz are non-penalty stats. Exceptions are stuff like the time interval and scoring situations plots. When I mentioned these stats in writing I usually mean non-penalty at the team level but I explicitly write it out at times just to be super clear.
Data sources: Transfermarkt, Sporteria, Football-Lab, FBref
Once again, this has taken up a gargantuan amount of time for me to watch/read/code/compile/organize so please like and share it across all of your social media, your IRL (in-real-life) friends, your family, your dog, etc.
Let’s get started!
League Table
It’s a very weird but rather typical J3 table if you take out Omiya Ardija at the top. Only 5 points separate 2nd from 12th! Kamatamare Sanuki might just be the unluckiest team across the entire J.League pyramid as their xG Difference is better than the entire bottom half… but they somehow lie second-to-last!
Omiya Ardija (1st, 46 points): 14 W / 4 D / 1 L
Location // Stadium: Omiya // Nack5 Stadium
Manager: Tetsu Nagasawa
37 Goals (1st); 13 Conceded (1st)
Top goal scorer: Kenyu Sugimoto & Arthur Silva (7 goals each)
Goalkeeper: Takashi Kasahara
Omiya Ardija are cruising at the top of the table having only lost once so far! They are very clearly the best team, even if their xG stats don’t really show it. I’ve watched most of their games in the first half of the season and they are really good at keeping teams at arm’s length, forcing opponents to take a bunch of not good shots.
Their record speaks for itself and the fact that they rarely let the opponent score in the 1st Half tells you a lot as well!
The reason I was watching this team so much was because I wanted to write about their teenage Center Back, Rion Ichihara:
He is part of an extremely stingy back-line that has conceded the least amount of goals so far alongside Niki Urakami, Yosuke Murakami, and veteran Mizuki Hamada, with Takashi Kasahara in goal.
Other young players that caught my eye were Yuta Ueda (Left Back on-loan from Kyoto Sanga), Toya Izumi (Left Winger on-loan from Vissel Kobe), and striker Kazushi Fujii. While the first two might simply get moved on after a good season for Omiya, they could always come back on loan in J2 as well. Kazushi Fujii is quite interesting to me, I really like his ability to find space through his smart runs.
Of course, the most important veteran is The Man, The Myth, The KENYU Sugimoto. He has suddenly found his goal-scoring form not seen since his 22 goal haul way back in 2017. Sugimoto is joined in the goal scoring charts by former FC Tokyo man, Arthur Silva who seems to have a knack for arriving in or just outside the box the score crucial goals.
All-in-all, I really do expect Omiya to return to J2 with ease. Of course, now that I’ve jinxed them they could go on a barren run. Sorry Squirrels!
All data viz:
Azul Claro Numazu (2nd, 31 points): 9 W / 4 D / 6 L
Location // Stadium: Numazu // Ashitaka Athletic Stadium
Manager: Gon Nakayama
31 Goals (5th); 19 Conceded (6th)
Top goal scorer: Hagumi Wada (8 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kenta Watanabe
Azul Claro, led by one of the best Japanese strikers ever in the form of Masashi “Gon” Nakayama are doing well in 2nd place. Of course, the J3 table is weird and they’ll need to keep an eye on their rear mirror as 12th place is only 5 points away.
The Numazu-based team also have a distinct knack for late goals to snatch victory or a draw at least from the jaws of defeat. I’m looking at the data… and laughing.
I think Azul Claro would like to score earlier but I guess it keeps the fans entertained!
In terms of players, the stand-outs from a data perspective have been Takumi Hama (Left Back) and Hagumu Wada (striker).
It’s also interesting to see the Azul Claro are 2nd in the league in terms of non-penalty xG (26.03) and scoring 31 goals (5th in the league) from that creative output. It’s their defending that has let them down with 24.18 xGA (5th worst), 251 shots against (8th worst), and 0.1 xGA per shot (5th worst) which is why they have had to rely on last-minute heroics to earn points. With all this in mind, I think the good attacking stats can also be put into the context of a team “throwing the kitchen sink” near the end of the games while the opponent sits back and absorbs pressure and shots rather than Azul Claro necessarily being an impressive attacking outfit from kick-off. It would be nice to have xG/xGA output by time interval but I don’t have access to that kind of data…
So clearly their stats aren’t really representative of a team that would normally be in 2nd place and it wouldn’t surprise me if they sink down toward mid-table. However, given how crazy most of the table is I guess “representativeness” might not matter here. With the points they’ve already accumulated they could sneak into the play-off spots.
All data viz:
FC Osaka (3rd, 31 points): 8 W / 7 D / 4 L
Location // Stadium: Machida // Hanazono Rugby Stadium
Manager: Naoto Otake
22 Goals (10th); 13 Conceded (2nd)
Top goal scorer: Shunsuke Tachino (3 goals)
Goalkeeper: Tatsunari Nagai
FC Osaka are in 3rd but they certainly don’t play like it… In terms of goals conceded they are the 2nd best in the league which might make you think they have been relying on their defensive prowess but the Osaka club rack up a 0.104 xGA per shot (2nd worst), and a 22.07 xGA (8th worst).
On the attacking side of things, while they take 260 shots (tied 3rd in the league), the quality of these shots are mostly middling (xG per shot is 7th worst). Still, their total xG is quite high mostly due to the volume of shots and yet they are under-performing their xG which has had them mid-table in terms of goals actually scored.
I haven’t watched them much so I can’t comment too much but data on Football-Lab leads me to think they are a high-pressing, short-counterattacking side that gets a lot of their plentiful shots from crosses. Indeed, FC Osaka have the 4th least average possession per game in the league. Despite all this open-play activity, FC Osaka get most of their goals from set-pieces instead…
Anyway in terms of individuals, it’s been Left Back Shunsuke Tachino providing a lot of value from crossing, set-pieces, and all-action defending.
All data viz:
Zweigen Kanazawa (4th, 30 points): 8 W / 6 D / 5 L
Location // Stadium: Kanazawa // Go Go Curry Stadium
Manager: Akira Ito
33 Goals (2nd); 29 Conceded (15th)
Top goal scorer: Marlyson & Hayato Otani (4 goals)
Goalkeeper: Itsuki Ueda
It was supposed to be a new fresh start for Zweigen Kanazawa after relegation from J2 but boy, did things start off extremely poorly by losing their first three games of the season and shipping a whopping 12 goals! However, things have stabilized since then and Kanazawa’s decision to keep a hold of manager Akira Ito is paying dividends as they now sit 4th and well in the promotion race.
Their xG over time shows that their early season poor form might have been more bad luck in front of goal, at both ends of the pitch.
While they are still not amazing, I think their numbers show that they are pretty decent overall especially in attack. Zweigen are 4th in the league in terms of total non-penalty xG, 4th in total non-penalty xGA, around mid-table in shots for and shots against, 2nd best in xG per shot, and 4th best in xGA per shot. That’s all quite good!
A big part of this has been the form of Yuki Kajiura (on-loan from FC Tokyo for the second consecutive season). While he was more of a ball-winner in the double-pivot in J2, he has transformed himself into a goal-hungry attacker in J3 with his 6 goals leading the team.
If Zweigen can continue what they are currently doing and continue to not be as unfortunate as they were in the beginning of the season I think they’ll be well within the conversation for promotion back to J2 by the end of the season.
All data viz:
FC Imabari (5th, 30 points): 9 W / 3 D / 7 L
Location // Stadium: Imabari // Imabari Satoyama Stadium
Manager: Toshihiro Hattori
20 Goals (11th); 21 Conceded (9th)
Top goal scorer: Marcus Vinicius (7 goals)
Goalkeeper: Jon Ander Serantes
FC Imabari are, as usual, in the fight for the promotion play-off places in J3. Their underlying numbers show that they’ve got quite a good defense, but unfortunately they’ve conceded the 11th most goals in the league.
If they can work a bit more on their set-piece and cross defending they might give themselves more leeway to also improve their mediocre attack.
In attack, Imbari take a scatter-shot approach and aren’t getting the output they want. A big part of this has been the great form of Marcus Vinicius (Índio) who has a team-leading 8 goals from 7.68 xG.
FC Imabari will need to keep Índio locked up in a safe between games if they are going to finally get promoted to J2 this year…
All data viz:
Fukushima United (6th, 29 points): 9 W / 2 D / 8 L
Location // Stadium: Fukushima // Toho Stadium
Manager: Shuhei Terada
29 Goals (7th); 20 Conceded (8th)
Top goal scorer: Ryo Shiohama (7 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kenshin Yoshimaru
Fukushima United are surprisingly in the play-off places after an extremely poor start with only two wins in their first 10 games of the season. However, a 9-0 pummeling of Iwate Grulla Morioka in Matchday 11 set something off inside of them and they have won a further 6 of their last 8 games.
A big factor has been the form of Kota Mori and Ryo Shiohama on the wing with the latter leading the team with 7 goals from 4.8 xG (as well as 5 asssists).
Fukushima get most of their goals from their work dribbling down the wings and crossing. They are the team to watch in J3 if you love 1v1 duels.
Of course, another big reason to watch Fukushima is the progress of 20 year old midfielder Yuto Ozeki (on loan from Kawasaki Frontale). Fantastic technique, ball-progression machine, and gets into the box to shoot and score as well!
After many years of languishing near the bottom of the professional pyramid, new manager Shuhei Terada has sprung some hope into Fukushima. Their underlying numbers aren’t exactly great, especially defensively but Fukushima will hope they can at least be in the running for a promotion play-off spot by the end of the season.
All data viz:
Kataller Toyama (7th, 29 points): 7 W / 8 D / 4 L
Location // Stadium: Toyama // Toyama Athletic Stadium
Manager: Michiharu Otagiri
21 Goals (12th); 16 Conceded (5th)
Top goal scorer: Shosei Usui (5 goals)
Goalkeeper: Tomoki Tagawa
Kataller Toyama have come close to J2 multiple times after first dropping down in the aftermath of the 2014 season. It’s nearly Michiharu Otagiri’s second full year in charge of the club and the team are doing OK in 7th place. They have a fairly solid defense with the 2nd best non-penalty xGA and the league-best xGA per shot but until recently, Kataller were just not scoring enough goals. This is also why they have drawn so many games.
Shosei Usui is the main man here with 5 goals and his work up top, especially in the air is their current life-line for any promotion play-off aspirations.
All data viz:
SC Sagamihara (8th, 29 points): 7 W / 8 D / 4 L
Location // Stadium: Sagamihara // Gion Stadium
Manager: Kazuyuki Toda // Yuki Stalph
20 Goals (13th); 15 Conceded (3rd)
Top goal scorer: Keisuke Ito (3 goals)
Goalkeeper: Motoaki Miura
For some reason SC Sagamihara fired Kazuyuki Toda, despite the fact that he rejuvenated a poor the squad and coached a somewhat stingy defense (although 3rd best in goals conceded, the xGA numbers were considerably worse…). He had also just about kept SC Sagamihara from a potential relegation with an extremely poor squad in 2023. Most importantly of all, Sagamihara were only two (2!) points off 2nd when Toda was fired… The expected goals numbers as well as the xGD graph shown below do point to an actually not-that-great team but I highly doubt Sagamihara’s management were using expected goals to judge Toda’s performances.
Up next in the managerial seat is ex-Nagano Parceiro and YSCC Yokohama coach… Yuki Stalph!
All data viz:
Matsumoto Yamaga (9th, 27 points): 7 W / 8 D / 4 L
Location // Stadium: Matsumoto // Sunpro Alwin Stadium
Manager: Masahiro Shimoda
31 Goals (4th); 26 Conceded (12th)
Top goal scorer: Hayato Asakawa (8 goals)
Goalkeeper: Issei Ouchi
Funnily enough, unlike Sagamihara earlier, Matsumoto Yamaga is a team that shows up quite well in the data. They have created the most xG, they’ve fired off the most shots, and their xG per shot is still a decent 5th place, while their defensive stats are slightly worse but still in the top 6~7 or so in J3!
… and yet reality is harsh as they’ve actually conceded 26 goals which is the 8th worst in the league. Hayato Asakawa is having another good season at the J3 level and could possibly beat his season-record of 16 from last season (with Nara) as he is on 8 goals already in 2024.
Matsumoto Yamaga were in J1 as recent as 2019! Given what I’ve outlined above, Matsumoto should honestly be closer to the top of the table. One would hope that they can actually start stringing together results that match their performances more!
All data viz:
FC Ryukyu (10th, 27 points): 7 W / 6 D / 6 L
Location // Stadium: Okinawa // Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium
Manager: Kim Jong-Song
27 Goals (8th); 26 Conceded (13th)
Top goal scorer: Haruto Shirai (10 goals)
Goalkeeper: John Higashi
FC Ryukyu have been a team that’s loved to keep the ball in the past, but crucially this season they are actually scoring more goals with it. The big caveat here is that nearly 15% of their 27 goal haul has come from penalties… and from Football-Lab’s data it looks like they don’t remove penalties from their xG so on that website Ryukyu look a lot better than they actually are… They should fix that. In terms of Sporteria’s xG data, we can clearly tell that things aren’t actually all that rosy in Ryukyu. Nevertheless because of this weird J3 season, they are still only 4 points off of 2nd… somehow!
On one hand, Haruto Shirai is having a good season with 10 goals scored from around 10.3 xG as per Football-Lab. However, he’s been the taker of Ryukyu’s 3 of 4 penalties. Nevertheless, he is still having an impact on the team through his ability to drive forward with the ball into the box and get shots off.
There’s other good news too in that FC Ryukyu are finally going to start work on their new stadium in Onoyama Park in downtown Naha (they currently play far away, near Kadena base). Hopefully by the time the new stadium finishes, the team would’ve improved and found their way out of their J3 doldrums…
All data viz:
FC Gifu (11th, 26 points): 7 W / 5 D / 7 L
Location // Stadium: Gifu // Nagaragawa Stadium
Manager: Yusaku Ueno
30 Goals (6th); 28 Conceded (14th)
Top goal scorer: Yuya Taguchi (9 goals)
Goalkeeper: Shu Mogi
FC Gifu are just about in the middle of most metrics, if you check out the quadrant plots they are right along the line every time… neither the worst nor the best.
One thing they do have a penchant for is conceding late goals…
Daigo Araki has been great this season with 5 goals, lots of ball progression, and decent quality shots from out wide. Well yep, that’s what you get when you drop an ex-J1 veteran all the way down into J3!
However the team-leading goal scorer is Yuya Taguchi with 9 goals so far, and Gifu will have to be careful as J2 teams might come sniffing over the summer.
All data viz:
Giravanz Kitakyushu (12th, 26 points): 6 W / 8 D / 5 L
Location // Stadium: Kitakyushu // Mikuni World Stadium
Manager: Kohei Masumoto
17 Goals (15th); 15 Conceded (4th)
Top goal scorer: Ryo Nagai (6 goals)
Goalkeeper: Yuya Tanaka
Giravanz Kitakyushu, another team that keeps it (somewhat) tight at the back but struggling for goals. Ryo Nagai has slowly dropped down into J3 at the tail-end of his career and is the main guy for Kitakyushu with 6 goals to his name already. Besides Nagai though, there really isn’t a whole lot of firepower as with their 19.24 non-penalty xG, Giravanz are 17th in the league for this stat and have scored over 35% of their goals from set-pieces as well.
At the other end of the pitch, Giravanz have been able to concede the 4th lowest tally in the league but mostly from being good at preventing shots (4th best) and the shots that do get through are of middling quality (xGA per shot, 8th best).
Giravanz have an extremely young squad with a couple veterans sprinkled in. After their promotion attempts from J2, they had to sell a lot of their stars (or return the loanees) and refresh the squad. They might be able to build something in a few years, so a team to keep an eye on in the future.
All data viz:
Nagano Parceiro (13th, 24 points): 6 W / 6 D / 7 L
Location // Stadium: Nagano // Nagano U Stadium
Manager: Riki Takagi
33 Goals (3rd); 33 Conceded (18th)
Top goal scorer: Kensei Ukita (11 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kim Min-Ho
Nagano Parceiro have scored the 3rd most goals and conceded the 3rd most… Well, one thing you can say for sure about this team is that their games are guaranteed to have goals! The bright light in attack has been Kensei Ukita as his 11 goals lead not just the team but the league in general (this might not be the case by the time most people read this newsletter)! But again, the big caveat here is that he’s done this from just 4.56 xG, one would think he’ll slow down in the 2nd half of the season…!
While Nagano haven’t been great defensively, Center Back Hayate Sugii catches the eye through his excellent ball progression numbers.
I do worry that since their xG numbers don’t actually line up with their goals scored that they’re going to go on a barren run and sink lower in the table.
All data viz:
Vanraure Hachinohe (14th, 23 points): 5 W / 8 D / 6 L
Location // Stadium: Hachinohe // Prifoods Stadium
Manager: Nobuhiro Ishizaki
17 Goals (17th); 19 Conceded (7th)
Top goal scorer: Kazuma Nagata (5 goals)
Goalkeeper: Shogo Onishi
Vanraure Hachinohe can keep it somewhat tight at the back but at the expense of any inkling of attacking output, despite loving to go on counterattacks. Just 17 goals scored and only 19 conceded across 19 games is… rough. Yeah, honestly I have nothing to say about this team, what you see is what you get.
All data viz:
Nara Club (15th, 20 points): 4 W / 8 D / 7 L
Location // Stadium: Nara // Rohto Field Nara
Manager: Julián Marín Bazalo
23 Goals (9th); 29 Conceded (16th)
Top goal scorer: Shota Yomesaka (6 goals)
Goalkeeper: Marc Vito
Nara Club are finding it a lot tougher in their second season in J3 after a very good outing in their 2023 debut where they finished in 5th! As we’ve seen in the past few years, Nara are really committed to possessing the ball. However, their attack seems to be extremely funneled through the Left Wing through the efforts of Yota Shimokawa and Yuki Okada. Shimokawa in particular really pops out through the lens of data!
One things that would definitely help would be if they fix their set-piece and cross defending.
All data viz:
YSCC Yokohama (16th, 20 points): 5 W / 5 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Yokohama // Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium
Manager: Kazuki Kuranuki
13 Goals (20th); 23 Conceded (10th)
Top goal scorer: Onye Ogochukwu & Koji Okumura (3 goals)
Goalkeeper: Michiya Okamoto
YSCC pass and keep the ball a lot but they’ve scored the least amount of goals this season. They take the least amount of shots and from those paltry shots they generate the least amount of xG in the league. All of this makes sense considering the fact that YSCC are the team that enter the final 3rd the least in the league and the opposition penalty box second least. I’m sure you can fill in the rest here.
All data viz:
Gainare Tottori (17th, 18 points): 4 W / 6 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Tottori // Axis Bird Stadium
Manager: Kentaro Hayashi
19 Goals (15th); 34 Conceded (19th)
Top goal scorer: Shota Tanaka (6 goals)
Goalkeeper: Riki Sakuraba
Gainare Tottori lie in the “relegation zone”. Along side last place Iwate, they are one of the definitively bad teams in the league this season, sitting pretty far down the table in just about every metric, shots and xG-wise.
Shota Tanaka has 6 goals… but from a paltry 3.7 xG. I’ve liked Hiroto Sese in the past (he showed up real well in the data at one point) but there’s only so much he can do to stem the tide in an absolutely awful team. Another positive has been veteran Makoto Fukoin who is a decent passer and ball-winner.
I went to Tottori on vacation (well, Shimane prefecture in general) and I got to see a home game at their Axis Bird Stadium. They were played off the park at home against Matsumoto Yamaga 0-4. I feel like that performance was fairly indicative of their poor season so far…
I also did not enjoy the famous Tottori sand dunes.
All data viz:
Tegevajaro Miyazaki (18th, 16 points): 3 W / 7 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Miyazaki // Unilever Stadium
Manager: Yuji Okuma
20 Goals (14th); 29 Conceded (17th)
Top goal scorer: Keigo Hashimoto (8 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kokoro Aoki
Tegevajaro Miyazaki started off the season incredibly poorly but they are somewhat better now, which isn’t saying much considering they are still 18th… Their horrible defense improved somewhat but Miyazaki still have a mountain to climb if they want to avoid relegation.
** Desperately searches for some positives ** Oh, uhhh… Keigo Hashimoto! The Japanese Peter Crouch! Well, OK he’s actually good in the air so maybe not… Big guy, wins aerials, receives in good positions, gets a reasonable shots off in the box (especially considering Miyazaki’s poor attack).
There’s also young winger, Mahiro Ano, who is on loan from Tokyo Verdy. Decently creative and getting lots of regular minutes (even though he’s currently injured), all at 20 years old which is always a positive sign. The big question is, will his impact scale up at the J2 or J1 level?
All data viz:
Kamatamare Sanuki (19th, 15 points): 2 W / 9 D / 7 L
Location // Stadium: Sanuki // Pikara Stadium
Manager: Atsushi Yoneyama
16 Goals (18th); 23 Conceded (11th)
Top goal scorer: Shota Kawanishi & Yohei Ono (3 goals)
Goalkeeper: Yusuke Imamura
Kamatamare Sanuki have the 7th most in xG, 3rd least in xGA, 6th in shot volume, have conceded the least amount of shots in the league… and yet they have only scored 16 goals from 23.34 non-penalty xG, conceded 23 from 18.43 xGA… and lie in 19th out of 20 teams. They must surely be extremely unlucky or some other weird thing is going on.
Of course, you could say that it’s mainly because of game-state. Sanuki seem to give up more goals (and not score themselves) in the early part of games which forces them to throw everything forward against the opponent as the game wears on…
You could also call these guys Set Piece FC considering they have scored a whopping 41.2% of their entire goal haul from those situations this season!
Gentaro Yoshida looks like a genuinely good player at this level from Left Wing/Left Wing-Back!
There’s clearly a decent team in here somewhere, one would hope the bounces start going their way in the 2nd Half of the season!
All data viz:
Iwate Grulla Morioka (20th, 13 points): 3 W / 4 D / 12 L
Location // Stadium: Morioka // Iwagin Stadium
Manager: Takuya Jinno
14 Goals (19th); 41 Conceded (20th)
Top goal scorer: Kenneth Otabor (3 goals)
Goalkeeper: Takuo Okubo
I’m looking at the numbers and yeahhhhhhh… Iwate are just very clearly the worst team in the league, it’s not even close in my opinion. JFL teams will be licking their lips, it might finally be the time for another J3-JFL swap!
And yet they are only 5 points adrift of safety somehow!
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
All data viz:
Squad Age Profiles
I changed the calculation of a squad's median age up a bit by simply taking into account only players that have played 50% of more of total possible league minutes. This is so when looking at the 'average' age of a team, we're doing a better job of considering players who are regulars in the team. I am not sure how other people might do it but from playing around with the raw data it looks OK, most teams have around 9~12 players that meet this threshold so I do think I'm capturing the right selection of players in any given team.
Anyway, here's the list of the U-23 players in the league with the most minutes played so far this season (filtered for those that have played more than 50% of total possible league minutes). You might want to keep an eye on these guys in the short-to-medium term. One of the simplest ways to judge a player’s quality is minutes played. It doesn’t matter how much talent you have or how much potential if, in the end, you don’t actually see minutes on the pitch to show it off!
Click here for the gallery of the viz for every team!
Time Interval
Ideally I would use a 15 minute interval so I could get rid of that one weird section straddling both halves (40-50th minute) but this was the easiest data set I could get. What's noticeable from this data set is that the good teams generally know how to close out a game and don’t concede many goals in the last 10~20 minutes.
Scoring Situations
Ideally, I would have data that concerns all shots or xG accumulated from different match situations as that would mean a much larger sample of data to power any insights (as goals are only the end result and may not give us information about a team's actual performance).
Team Shot Quantity & Team Shot Quality
In the previous few sections we got to know a lot about the goals that J.League teams scored. However, in a sport like soccer/football goals are hard to come by, they might not really accurately represent a team’s actual ability or performance (even if ultimately, it's the end result that matters). To take things one step further I was able to gather data from Sporteria on shot quantity to dive a bit more into team performances. I’ve reversed the order of some of the stats in these next few plots so that in all cases the top right is best and bottom left is the worst teams when looking at their respective stats.
So, what exactly is expected goals (xG)? Expected goals is a statistic where a model assigns a probability (between 0 and 1) that a shot taken will result in a goal based on a variety of variables and is used for evaluating the quality of chances and predicting players’ and teams’ future performances. A xG model only looks at the variables up to the point that the player touches the ball for a shot. Post-shot xG models covers the information about where in the frame of the goal the shot went (“post” as in all the information after the player touches the ball for the shot) but I won’t cover that here.
For some quick primers on xG check the links below:
The following two sections use xG data from Football-Lab. I’m not privy to all of what goes into their model but the explanation page on their website (in Japanese) tells us about some of the information they used:
Distance from goal?
Angle from goal line?
Aerial duel?
Body part used?
Number of touches? (one touch, more than two touches, set plays, etc.)
Play situation? (Corner kick, direct/indirect free kick, open play, etc.)
So, the usual variables that you might recognize from other xG models are being considered. Combining shot quantity and shot quality numbers gives you a much better idea about a team’s performance on either side of the ball.
xG Difference
xG Difference is pretty much the same thing as Goal Difference except that we use xG and xGA rather than goals and goals against. This lets us see very quickly which teams generally outperformed their opponents in terms of quality of chances created to quality of chances conceded based on a xG model. This time around I also included the team's results inside the bubble points. So it's easier to see whether a team that had a positive xGD in a specific match couldn't manage to win the game or vice-versa. You ideally want to be below the diagonal line and winning (W) these games as well.
Five Match Rolling Averages
Goals vs. Goals Against
xG vs. xGA
xG vs. Goals
xGA vs. Goals Against
Summary
This review was quite hard to write as J3 is just naturally a weird league. Trying to discern the story of the team’s season so far from mostly just stats (more than I prefer…), which as you’ve seen can be all over the place, was very difficult.
It also doesn’t help that most teams are smushed up in the middle of the table where it’s really hard to tell who is actually a good team after you get past Omiya… You can also see how in the “quadrant” plots, the distribution of the teams on the graphs are very different from the J1 and J2 versions. This makes sense given how everybody is taking points off of each other, winning one week and playing brilliantly, then losing spectacularly in the next.
It was a nice challenge and hopefully you found it useful. I do have plans to watch more J3 games as there are a couple of players I’m interested in keeping tabs on. Let’s see what the end of November brings!
Thanks for reading!