J2 2024 Mid-Season Review
Promotion to J1, Relegation to J3 at stake!
Hello and welcome to the first ever J2 review!
For those unfamiliar with my work, I take a detailed look at each and every team with both data and my eyes. This is a shortened version of my popular J1 reviews!
This review consists of:
The league table.
I talk a little bit about each team. All the mid-season reviews going forward will be much shorter considering I’m expanding it to J2 and J3 as well.
A section on the different types of data viz: Explanations and link to the viz for every team.
Some notes, warnings, disclaimers, etc.:
All the data stuff is done with R. The player radars are courtesy of Ben Griffis.
To keep up to date with all of what’s happening in the J.League, I made a giant Twitter thread of lots of cool informed people to follow on Twitter for English language/international J.League content. You can find it here!
All of the shots and xG related stuff you see in the viz are non-penalty stats. Exceptions are stuff like the time interval and scoring situations plots. When I mentioned these stats in writing I usually mean non-penalty at the team level but I explicitly write it out at times just to be super clear.
Data sources: Transfermarkt, Sporteria, Football-Lab, FBref
Once again, this has taken up a gargantuan amount of time for me to watch/read/code/compile/organize so please like and share it across all of your social media, your IRL (in-real-life) friends, your family, your dog, etc.
Let’s get started!
League Table
At the halfway point of the season, Shimizu S-Pulse and V-Varen Nagasaki (one game in hand) are the clear favorites for promotion with Yokohama FC potentially in the mix behind them. Following the top 3 are a whole bunch of clubs vying for the play-off places with only 6 points separating 4th through 8th (while also keeping in mind that Iwaki FC in 8th also have a game in hand so the gap could potentially be smaller). At the other end of the table, it’s… not looking good for Thespakusatsu Gunma who are rooted to the bottom of the table and nine whole points away from safety.
Shimizu S-Pulse (1st, 43 pts.): 14 W / 1 D / 4 L
Location // Stadium: Shimizu // IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Manager: Tadahiro Akiba
34 Goals (tied 2nd); 19 Conceded (8th)
Top goal scorer: Koya Kitagawa (9 goals)
Goalkeeper: Shuichi Gonda
Shimizu S-Pulse are the clear leaders of the J2 season with their firepower (and great finishing) overwhelming most of their opponents. Unless they collapse like last season, they should be getting promoted back to J1 this year (* knock on wood *). Koya Kitagawa has been in fine form and well on track to beat his previous record of 13 league goals from back in 2018. Reon Yamahara continues to be one of the premier Left Backs across the J.League and on a personal level, I’m quite annoyed he’s stayed down in J2 this long as I had him as a potential solution to the national team’s Left Back woes a few years ago…
Other players to watch out for are some of the young talent that Tadahiro Akiba has given chances to. The most surprising has been 17 year old Motoki Nishihara who has scored 2 goals already from only cameo appearances!
All data viz:
V-Varen Nagasaki (2nd, 39 pts.): 11 W / 6 D / 1 L
Location // Stadium: Nagasaki // Nagasaki Athletic Stadium
Manager: Takahiro Shimotaira
34 Goals (tied 2nd); 15 Conceded (tied 2nd)
Top goal scorer: Edigar Junio (11 goals)
Goalkeeper: Gaku Harada
V-Varen Nagasaki have been on the cusp of promotion quite a few times since their last relegation from J1 back in 2018. This season finally might be the year they get back in as their quality-filled squad is now lead by a competent manager in Takahiro Shimotaira. V-Varen play some really nice possession football with Hayato Tanaka’s excellent build-up play from the back, Hiroki Akino pulling the strings from midfield, and Matheus Jesus having an absolute monster season with 8 goals and 4 assists so far. Up front Edigar Junio leads the league with 11 goals supported by veteran Juanma while 20 year old Tsubasa Kasayanagi, Asahi Masuyama, and Right Back Tsuyoshi Moyo making penetrating runs from out wide in the final 3rd. I’m still a bit iffy on their defense despite conceding the 2nd least amount of goals so far but they usually just keep the ball really well that it doesn’t really matter. I’m hoping this team gets promoted, just in time for their new soccer-specific stadium located right in downtown to be finished in December (V-Varen currently play far outside of Nagasaki city proper…).
The two players I’ve kept my eyes on this season are Tsubasa Kasayanagi and Hayato Tanaka (on loan from Kashiwa Reysol). I’m quite interested in writing a “Shogun Soccer Scouting” feature on one, if not both of these players later in the year.
All data viz:
Yokohama FC (3rd, 37 pts.): 11 W / 4 D / 1 L
Location // Stadium: Yokohama // Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium
Manager: Shuhei Yomoda
31 Goals (18th); 58 Conceded (16th)
Top goal scorer: Sho Ito & Caprini (4 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Akinori Ichikawa
After a pretty horrible 2023 J1 season leading to relegation, manager Shuhei Yomoda has been able to steady the ship and are well poised to jump straight back up this season. A big reason has been acquiring Akito Fukumori from Consadole Sapporo over the winter and with that wand of a left foot of his, has contributed to 9 assists already this season!
As you can then imagine, Yokohama score 40% of their total goals from set-piece situations!
All data viz:
Vegalta Sendai (4th, 33 pts.): 9 W / 6 D / 4 L
Location // Stadium: Sendai // Yurtec Stadium
Manager: Yoshiro Moriyama
23 Goals (4th); 20 Conceded (9th)
Top goal scorer: Motohiko Nakajima (5 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Akihiro Hayashi
For a rather sizeable club in a large city, Vegalta Sendai have been quite disappointing over the past few years, even more so that they have not looked close to getting promoted back to J1 since their relegation back in 2021. However, things are finally looking better this season under the stewardship of Yoshiro Moriyama who has revitalized the squad by focusing on younger players (which makes sense given how Moriyama has mainly been a youth coach in his career so far).
The players to watch are Ryunosuke Sagara, a fantastic dribbler with 5 goals and 3 assists so far and ex-Cerezo attacker Motohiko Nakajima. Ryota Takada and Rikuto Ishio could also be interesting for J1 clubs if they keep improving under Moriyama’s guidance.
All data viz:
Renofa Yamaguchi (5th, 31 pts.): 9 W / 4 D / 6 L
Location // Stadium: Yamaguchi // Yamaguchi Ishin Park Stadium
Manager: Ryo Shigaki
25 Goals (5th); 15 Conceded (tied 2nd)
Top goal scorer: Kota Kawano, Tsubasa Umeki, etc. (3 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kentaro Seki
Renofa Yamaguchi have been the real surprise of the season as they just barely staved off relegation in 2023 having finished 20th and are usually near the bottom of the J2 table every season. Ryo Shigaki, who helped FC Osaka to a mid-table finish in their maiden J3 season, has been a revelation as his effective tactics have spurred this team into the promotion play-off spots. Long balls to striker Tsubasa Umeki and gaining territory by being quick to collect loose balls while also not being afraid to pass it around the back a bit have let Yamaguchi punch above their weight so far.
I have personally really enjoyed watching them this season. My main focus has been on Kaili Shimbo, the Left Back who has 1 goal and 7 assists so far (from set-pieces and open-play crosses), but there are other interesting players like Kota Kawano, Yamato Wakatsuki, and Tsubasa Umeki.
For an in-depth look at Kaili Shimbo, read:
Shogun Soccer Scouting #4: Kaili Shimbo
Hi all! I’m back with another Shogun Soccer Scouting feature… on Kaili Shimbo.
The big question is, can they keep this up? Especially if opportunistic clubs come sniffing around for Umeki or Shimbo?
All data viz:
Fagiano Okayama (6th, 31 pts.): 8 W / 7 D / 4 L
Location // Stadium: Okayama // City Light Stadium
Manager: Takashi Kiyama
25 Goals (8th); 15 Conceded (5th)
Top goal scorer: Hiroto Iwabuchi (5 goals)
Goalkeeper: Svend Brodersen
Fagiano Okayama are in their 3rd season under Kiyama and once again they are in the running for a promotion play-off spot. They started off the season in fine form, undefeated in their first 7 games of the season, but slowly lost steam (not for the first time I should say…). Also, they lost star striker Gleyson (3 goals, 4 assists) to injury. However, Jumpei Hayakawa’s loan from Urawa Reds and Lucao slowly getting into scoring form might help Okayama push on and get another shot at the play-offs. In terms of their stats, they have one of the best xG and xG per shot in the league but they also have a pretty poor xGA per shot while conceding the 2nd least shots against.
All data viz:
JEF United (7th, 30 pts.): 9 W / 3 D / 7 L
Location // Stadium: Ichihara // Fukuda Denshi Arean
Manager: Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
39 Goals (1st); 22 Conceded (11th)
Top goal scorer: Hiiro Komori (9 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kazuki Fujita
Since JEF got relegated to J2 in 2009, they have consistently disappointed and have now been stuck in J2 for more than a decade. However, the last two seasons under Yoshiyuki Kobayashi has seen positives with a promotion play-off appearance in 2023 and they are currently well in the hunt for another attempt this season.
A caveat to a lot of their attacking stats is that they had two barn-storming wins against some pretty poor teams, 8-0 vs. Tochigi and 7-1 vs. Ehime. Nevertheless, they have the highest total xG, taken the most shots, and are 3rd best in terms of xG per shot as well. Their defense is also a lot better than from what I’ve seen but despite all these stats, their results haven’t quite fallen their way as they only sit in 7th, having already lost 7 games this season!
In terms of players to watch, I am a big fan of Hiiro Komori who is their star striker with 9 goals and 2 assists. He is a real “fox-in-the-box” type striker that gets into good positions in the box and fires off shots quickly. Otherwise they got Fujieda’s Akiyuki Yokoyama during the off-season and he’s been decent while veterans Taguchi and Dudu are squeezing every last bit of juice to get this JEF Chiba team promoted.
All data viz:
Iwaki FC (8th, 27 pts.): 7 W / 6 D / 5 L
Location // Stadium: Iwaki // Hawaiians Stadium Iwaki
Manager: Yuzo Tamura
26 Goals (6th); 15 Conceded (tied 2nd)
Top goal scorer: Kaina Tanimura (9 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kotaro Tachikawa
Iwaki are another surprise this season after finishing 18th in their maiden J2 season in 2023. The mid-season managerial change last year to Yuzo Tamura has paid big dividends as they are now battling for a J1 promotion-play-off place! A big part of this has been their mean defense which has conceded the second least xGA and shots against in the league so far, all leading to the tied 2nd least goals conceded in reality. A key defensive player here has been Hayato Teruyama who also has a knack for scoring important goals.
Despite losing star attacker, Hiroto Iwabuchi to Okayama, a couple of players have stepped up like Jun Nishikawa (on loan from Cerezo Osaka) and Kaina Tanimura (9 goals and 2 assists!). Another player of interest is the much-hyped Rui Osako who has been playing as a Left Wing Back and contributing through his sharp accurate left footed crosses from open-play and set-pieces.
All data viz:
Blaublitz Akita (9th, 25 pts.): 6 W / 7 D / 6 L
Location // Stadium: Akita // Soyu Stadium
Manager: Ken Yoshida
20 Goals (11th); 18 Conceded (7th)
Top goal scorer: Daiki Sato (4 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kentaro Kakoi
Akita under Ken Yoshida are usually not very pretty to watch. This has been the case this season as well. I’ll be honest, they are the team I’ve watched the least in J2 this season. What is weird is that stats-wise… they somehow have the 2nd highest total xG with 28.2!? Unfortunately, they’ve only scored 20 goals from this xG haul which might point to a complete lack of finishing quality up top for the Akita side…
A whopping 50% of their goals have come from set-pieces!
All data viz:
Ehime FC (10th, 25 pts.): 6 W / 7 D / 6 L
Location // Stadium: Yokohama // Ningineer Stadium
Manager: Kiyotaka Ishimaru
23 Goals (11th); 27 Conceded (14th)
Top goal scorer: Riki Matsuda, Shunsuke Tanimoto, etc. (3 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kenta Tokushiga // Shugo Tsuji
Ehime were one of the teams promoted from J3, as champions. They… haven’t been great honestly, especially being handed a 1-7 shellacking by JEF United back in May. This is still very much a J3 level squad with some really awful defensive and attacking stats like their league worst expected goal difference and xGA… and yet they’ve been able to grind out a lot of draws and squeak a few wins which means they are right in the middle of the table half way through the season. Survival is everything for Ehime this season so they’ll hope they can keep grinding out results to give them some time to fix their desperately poor underlying performances.
In terms of players to watch, Ryo Kubota had a massive season for FC Gifu in 2023 and was picked up by Ehime for J2 and he’s got 2 goals and 3 assists so far. 21 year old Aussie, Ben Duncan, is slowly carving out a career in Japan with 3 goals and 1 assist, which already matches his haul from the entirety of the 2023 J3 season!
All data viz:
Oita Trinita (11th, 24 pts.): 5 W / 9 D / 5 L
Location // Stadium: Oita // Showa Denko Dome
Manager: Tomohiro Katanosaka
18 Goals (13th); 18 Conceded (6th)
Top goal scorer: Shun Nagasawa (5 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Taro Hamada
Oita brought back their legendary manager, Tomohiro Katanosaka back to the bench this season (he’s the guy that led Trinita from J3 back up to J1 in 3 years). However, things haven’t been smooth sailing as the Kyushu club are mired in mid-table mediocrity. A lot of my complaints about this squad come from their aging attack, full of near/over-30s players that were all part of Katanosaka’s side when he was last in charge of the club! They simply aren’t good enough which is a shame since I actually quite like their defense and midfield at the individual level. All-in-all their stats on either side of the ball are mediocre and I don’t think they’re getting promoted anytime soon unless they really clear the deadwood and refresh their attack.
Players I like in this team are their Center Back pairing of Yudai Fujiwara (on loan from Urawa Reds, also helped Machida Zelvia get promoted to J1 last season) and Tomoya Ando. The reason I’ve been watching Oita this season has been Kenshin Yasuda, who unfortunately has lost his place in the double pivot as the season went by and has oddly appeared at Right Back recently… As a result I’m going to hold off on writing a Shogun Soccer Scouting piece on him until he returns to the line-up in midfield.
All data viz:
Fujieda MYFC (12th, 24 pts.): 7 W / 3 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Fujieda // Fujieda Soccer Stadium
Manager: Daisuke Sudo
15 Goals (18th); 25 Conceded (13th)
Top goal scorer: Ken Yamura (3 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Kai Kitamura // Kei Uchiyama
Fujieda have continued to manage keeping themselves afloat in J2 after promotion back in 2022. They are not a great team but the things is… they are not one of the 3 worst teams so I imagine they can keep themselves up again this year. If you take a look at the various “quadrant” viz you’ll see this first hand. They have a possession-heavy style of play that’s been preached by manager Daisuke Sudo but they are extremely reliant on Ken Yamura’s hot form in front of goal to actually score goals. Of course, they have lost quite a few good players over the past few seasons like Akiyuki Yokoyama, Tojiro Kubo, and Ryo Watanabe so clearly Sudo is doing decently enough given the resources at his disposal.
I feel like the next Fujieda player(s) that might be on the move are Ren Asakura, Ken Yamura, and Keigo Enomoto.
All data viz:
Ventforet Kofu (13th, 23 pts.): 6 W / 5 D / 8 L
Location // Stadium: Kofu // JIT Recycle Ink Stadium
Manager: Yoshiyuki Shinoda
29 Goals (4th); 28 Conceded (17th)
Top goal scorer: Adailton (7 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Tsubasa Shibuya
With the talent Ventforet Kofu have, they should be nowhere near mid-table… This is a team that have consistently flirted with promotion back to J1 but they keep falling at the final hurdle. A Emperor’s Cup victory and subsequent Asian Champions League campaign (where they bravely lost in the Round of 16) was admirable but that hasn’t translated to success in the league. Of course, a lot of the best players from that Emperor’s Cup win have been taken away like Motoki Hasegawa (among others) but they’ve kept the G.O.A.T. himself, Peter Utaka, and have also brought in Fabian Gonzalez and Adailton to compensate. Kofu continue to underwhelm with decent attacking/defending stats but nothing outright amazing stuff and from the times I’ve watched this team play, they just aren’t all that interesting to watch despite the talent in the squad.
All data viz:
Montedio Yamagata (14th, 22 pts.): 6 W / 4 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Yamagata // ND Soft Stadium
Manager: Susumu Watanabe
16 Goals (17th); 21 Conceded (10th)
Top goal scorer: Junya Takahashi (4 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Masaaki Goto
Montedio Yamagata are another team that have been really pushing for a promotion to J1 in recent years but they keep failing in the play-offs. Unfortunately, this season they are looking like they won’t even make the play-offs at all! Yamagata have lost a lot of players over the past couple of seasons alongside dismissing Peter Cklamovski as manager (after a poor start to the 2023 season) and things haven’t really improved much at all. There’s not a whole lot I can say about this team besides that they are clearly just mediocre.
All data viz:
Tokushima Vortis (15th, 22 pts.): 6 W / 4 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Tokushima // Pocari Sweat Stadium
Manager: Kosaku Masuda
18 Goals (14th); 28 Conceded (15th)
Top goal scorer: Daiki Watari (5 goals)
Goalkeeper: Jose Aurelio Suarez
Things were extremely dicey for Tokushima Vortis as they won only once in the first 10 games of the season! However, a managerial change and kicking out star player Nishiya later… the Shikoku side have climbed out of the godawful mess they got themselves in. Vortis aren’t completely out of the woods yet seeing as they are sitting in 15th but with the quality of the players they have in the squad they shouldn’t be stuck in lower-mid-table anyways, so I think they’ll be fine especially if they fix their leaky defense to help out beleaguered Jose Aurelio Suarez in goal.
In terms of interesting players, unfortunately Noah Kenshin Browne has had a tough time adjusting to J2 but you can’t really blame him with all of Vortis’ off-field troubles. Rio Hyon and Kento Hashimoto might be interesting though.
All data viz:
Roasso Kumamoto (16th, 21 pts.): 5 W / 6 D / 8 L
Location // Stadium: Kumamoto // Egao Kenko Stadium
Manager: Takeshi Oki
24 Goals (9th); 33 Conceded (tied 19th)
Top goal scorer: Keito Kumashiro (1 goal plus 3 penalties)
Goalkeeper: Ryuga Tashiro
I’ve talked previously about how a few years ago, Roasso Kumamoto were one goal away from getting promoted to J1 but in 2024, their squad has been picked apart by vultures and they are barely hanging on in J2. They have one of the worst defensive records in the league and their attack can’t make up the difference. Kumamoto are yet another team whose best players have been plucked away from them by J1 clubs like So Kawahara (Sagan Tosu), Rei Hirakawa (Jubilo Iwata), and Takuya Shimamura (Kashiwa Reysol).
Even still, Kumamoto have some interesting young players that keep replacing their departures. Ayumu Toyoda has really stepped up this season after mere cameos in 2023. He is a good ball-winner and has a nice range of passing. Keito Kumashiro made a lot of headlines as the 16 year old (yes, sixteen year old) went on to score 4 goals from cameo appearances. Sure, 3 of the 4 goals were penalties… but nonetheless! The Korean Bae Jeong-min has been bright in the few times I’ve watched him while Yutaka Michiwaki is still around after he was the one making headlines as the teenage striker extraordinaire last season.
All data viz:
Mito HollyHock (17th, 18 pts.): 4 W / 6 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Mito // K’s Denki Stadium
Manager: Naoki Mori
17 Goals (15th); 22 Conceded (11th)
Top goal scorer: Riku Ochiai (5 goals plus 3 penalties)
Goalkeeper: Shuhei Matsubara
Mito HollyHock have a niche in the J.League pyramid by being the team that takes promising young players on loan from the J1 clubs and gives them valuable game-time. They don’t have an awful lot of money and frequently struggle but these loans usually keep them just about above relegation but it’s been pretty tight this season as they sit in 17th. One player to watch from Mito is Riku Ochiai who is on loan from Kashiwa Reysol and has notched 5 goals and 1 assist. I was surprised to see that he’s already 25, however, as I thought he’d be much younger seeing as he’s on loan at Mito. This just goes to show how tough it can be to turn pro after graduating from university as your already short football career is shortened further and you really have to hit the ground running (like Mitoma or Hatate) to carve out a good professional career for yourself…
All data viz:
Kagoshima United (18th, 16 pts.): 3 W / 7 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Kagoshima // Shiranami Stadium
Manager: Tetsuya Asano
16 Goals (16th); 33 Conceded (18th)
Top goal scorer: Noriaki Fujimoto (2 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Ryota Izumori
Long time readers would know I have a bit of a soft spot for Kagoshima United after I went to see them last year.
… and I talked about how even if Kagoshima United were to be promoted from J3 (they were around 3rd at the time), they would have an extremely hard time in J2 as the squad simply wasn’t up to snuff. Well, we’re here in 2024 and wouldn’t you know, Kagoshima’s squad isn’t good enough for J2. Even after a managerial change to Tetsuya Asano in the past month, I don’t think things are going to drastically change for them unfortunately.
One low hanging fruit for Asano to fix is defending set-pieces and crosses where Kagoshima United have shipped 30.3% and 24.2% of their total goals conceded, respectively!
Noriaki Fujimoto is past it while Charles Nduka has found the step up to J2 difficult. The defense leaks goals, it’s just not looking good. Some interesting young-ish players include Shosei Okamoto, Seiya Take (he’s barely featured in J2 though), and Wataru Tanaka (on loan from Montedio Yamagata).
All data viz:
Tochigi SC (19th, 14 pts.): 3 W / 7 D / 9 L
Location // Stadium: Tochigi // Kanseki Stadium
Manager: Shinji Kobayashi
14 Goals (19th); 37 Conceded (20th)
Top goal scorer: Harumi Minamino (5 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kenta Tanno
Tochigi are woeful, they fired manager Makoto Tanaka after only a few months but I don’t think it’ll change their outlook. The only reason you should watch this team (besides the fact that you’re a Tochigi resident) is that 20 year old attacker Harumi Minamino (on loan from Gamba Osaka) looks interesting with 5 goals and 1 assist so far.
All data viz:
Thespakusatsu Gunma (20th, 9 pts.): 5 W / 6 D / 8 L
Location // Stadium: Gunma // Shoda Shoyu Stadium
Manager: Akira Muto
31 Goals (18th); 58 Conceded (16th)
Top goal scorer: Yuya Takazawa (2 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Masatoshi Kushibiki
Thespakusatsu Gunma have been absolutely rotten this season. They are nine (9!) whole points away from safety and I really can’t see them climbing out…
All data viz:
Squad Age Profiles
I changed the calculation of a squad's median age up a bit by simply taking into account only players that have played 50% of more of total possible league minutes. This is so when looking at the 'average' age of a team, we're doing a better job of considering players who are regulars in the team. I am not sure how other people might do it but from playing around with the raw data it looks OK, most teams have around 9~12 players that meet this threshold so I do think I'm capturing the right selection of players in any given team.
Anyway, here's the list of the U-23 players in the league with the most minutes played so far this season (filtered for those that have played more than 50% of total possible league minutes). You might want to keep an eye on these guys in the short-to-medium term. One of the simplest ways to judge a player’s quality is minutes played. It doesn’t matter how much talent you have or how much potential if, in the end, you don’t actually see minutes on the pitch to show it off!
Time Interval
Ideally I would use a 15 minute interval so I could get rid of that one weird section straddling both halves (40-50th minute) but this was the easiest data set I could get. What's noticeable from this data set is that the good teams generally know how to close out a game and don’t concede many goals in the last 10~20 minutes.
Scoring Situations
Ideally, I would have data that concerns all shots or xG accumulated from different match situations as that would mean a much larger sample of data to power any insights (as goals are only the end result and may not give us information about a team's actual performance).
Team Shot Quantity & Team Shot Quality
In the previous few sections we got to know a lot about the goals that J.League teams scored. However, in a sport like soccer/football goals are hard to come by, they might not really accurately represent a team’s actual ability or performance (even if ultimately, it's the end result that matters). To take things one step further I was able to gather data from Sporteria on shot quantity to dive a bit more into team performances. I’ve reversed the order of some of the stats in these next few plots so that in all cases the top right is best and bottom left is the worst teams when looking at their respective stats.
So, what exactly is expected goals (xG)? Expected goals is a statistic where a model assigns a probability (between 0 and 1) that a shot taken will result in a goal based on a variety of variables and is used for evaluating the quality of chances and predicting players’ and teams’ future performances. A xG model only looks at the variables up to the point that the player touches the ball for a shot. Post-shot xG models covers the information about where in the frame of the goal the shot went (“post” as in all the information after the player touches the ball for the shot) but I won’t cover that here.
For some quick primers on xG check the links below:
The following two sections use xG data from Football-Lab. I’m not privy to all of what goes into their model but the explanation page on their website (in Japanese) tells us about some of the information they used:
Distance from goal?
Angle from goal line?
Aerial duel?
Body part used?
Number of touches? (one touch, more than two touches, set plays, etc.)
Play situation? (Corner kick, direct/indirect free kick, open play, etc.)
So, the usual variables that you might recognize from other xG models are being considered. Combining shot quantity and shot quality numbers gives you a much better idea about a team’s performance on either side of the ball.
xG Difference
xG Difference is pretty much the same thing as Goal Difference except that we use xG and xGA rather than goals and goals against. This lets us see very quickly which teams generally outperformed their opponents in terms of quality of chances created to quality of chances conceded based on a xG model. This time around I also included the team's results inside the bubble points. So it's easier to see whether a team that had a positive xGD in a specific match couldn't manage to win the game or vice-versa. You ideally want to be below the diagonal line and winning (W) these games as well.
Five Match Rolling Averages
Goals vs. Goals Against
xG vs. xGA
xG vs. Goals
xGA vs. Goals Against
Summary
We’re half-way through the season and things are certainly heating up! While S-Pulse and Nagasaki are clearly leading the pack… you never really know how things will pan out in J2 so nothing is set in stone yet! While I’m pretty pessimistic about Gunma and Tochigi, there’s still time for some drastic changes to happen as well.
Hopefully you enjoyed this first edition of the J2 review. See you at the end of the season!
Thanks for reading!
Excellent write up as usual! Always great to read your articles, highly detailed and with a great statistical overview. Was very curious especially about Yokohama's set piece ability since I noticed they scored at least five, but a full four-tenths is incredible - it shows they have a special consistency with it, but we will see if that lasts or if teams like Vegalta or Shimizu can shut that down.
Looking forward to seeing what the second half of the season will bring!
Fantastic stuff Ryo!
It's great to see you covering J2 in depth like you do with J1!