J2 2024 Season Review
S-Pulse return to J1 as champions! Gunma, Kagoshima, and Tochigi go down to J3.
Hello again, it’s the J2 Season Review! For those unfamiliar, I take a detailed look at each and every team with both data and my eyes. I went back-and-forth on whether I should wait until after the promotion play-offs but I realized that’ll bump into my J3 and J1 review release dates in December so I’m releasing this now. There’s lots more to come from me in the next month so I want to give people some breathing/reading room!
Anyway, I’ve started watching way more J2 this season so it’s been fun diving deeper instead of just looking at The Numbers ™️.
This review consists of:
The league table
A section on every J2 team: Summary overview, tactics, data, players, etc.
A section on the different types of data viz: Explanations and link to the viz for every team
Some notes, warnings, disclaimers, etc.:
All the data stuff is done with R.
To keep up to date with all of what’s happening in J1, I made a giant Twitter thread of lots of cool informed people to follow on Twitter for English language/international J.League content. You can find it here!
Oh, I’m also on BlueSky now.
The J3 2024 Season Review is also out:
All of the shots and xG related stuff you see in the viz are non-penalty stats. Exceptions are stuff like the time interval and scoring situations plots. When I mentioned these stats in writing I usually mean non-penalty at the team level but I explicitly write it out at times just to be super clear. The xG by Japanese data providers always include penalties so I have to go and match shots to penalties and take off 0.8 xG myself (it’s a whole darn process all for a simple “X minus 0.8” operation).
Just in general I am constrained data-wise by what I have. I wish I had more granular data but that’s not publicly available!
Data sources: Transfermarkt, Sporteria, Football-Lab, FBref
Once again, this has taken up a gargantuan amount of time for me to watch/read/code/compile/organize so please like and share it across all of your social media, your IRL (in-real-life) friends, your family, your dog, etc.
Let’s get started!
League Table
The 2024 J2 league finished with Shimizu S-Pulse as the champions while 2nd place went to Yokohama FC for the last automatic promotion spot. In the play-offs, Montedio Yamagata had an incredible 2nd half of the season turnaround to finish in 4th. The rest of the bracket was taken up by V-Varen Nagasaki, Fagiano Okayama, and Vegalta Sendai with JEF United missing out after a heavy 0-4 defeat in a death match vs. Montedio Yamagata.
Down in the relegation zone are Tochigi SC, Kagoshima United, and Thespakusatsu Gunma who are fairly deservedly going down to J3 with some very abject performances. Some truly woeful goal and xG differentials in the bottom half, oh dear.
Shimizu S-Pulse (1st, 82 Pts): 26 W / 4 D / 8 L
Location // Stadium: Shimizu // IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Manager: Tadahiro Akiba
68 Goals (2nd); 38 Conceded (5th)
54.38 xG (3rd); 34.1 xGA (2nd)
Top goal scorer: Koya Kitagawa (12 goals)
Goalkeeper: Shuichi Gonda
Shimizu S-Pulse are your 2024 J2 champions! After matchday 5 when the league table started to settle, Shimizu S-Pulse did not drop out of the top 2 except for a brief three matchday period in late June. They finished the season strong with only 2 defeats in the last 15 games of the season!
Takashi Inui showed once again that he's just far too good for J2 with another excellent season with 5 goals and 8 assists all at the ripe old age of 36. However, I do feel S-Pulse are a bit too reliant on him to get stuff done and it’ll be interesting if he can turn back the clock to do the same to J1 defenses once again.
For me S-Pulse were the team that had the most complete attack, despite the fact that V-Varen Nagasaki and Yokohama FC actually finished the season with a higher total non-penalty xG. S-Pulse were able to hurt their opposition in a huge variety of ways from their usual possession-based play, quick attacks and through-balls into space, but also from set-pieces.
Long time readers will know how big of a fan I am of Reon Yamahara who finished the season with 3 goals and 7 assists. Fantastic crossing ability, does the business at either end of the pitch, drives the team forward with his ball progression skills (both dribbling and passing), and even takes set pieces to boot! If he’d been in J1 over the past two seasons I really think he would’ve gone to Europe by now!
One to watch in the future is Motoki Nishihara, who wasn't on anybody's radar at all but jumped past quite a few other promising S-Pulse youth players to earn playing time as a 17 year old. He scored 2 goals and has impressed enough to get call-ups to the U-18 Japan national team.
Jelani Sumiyoshi finally got starting minutes to kick start his career after warming the bench at Sanfrecce Hiroshima for a long time. Both he and his Center Back partner, Sodai Hasukawa (also on loan but from FC Tokyo) have done more than enough for S-Pulse to trigger a outright purchase especially since both players seem to be out of favor at their parent clubs. Another thing to note is just how good S-Pulse’s defense was this season which doesn’t often get talked about due to their firepower in attack. They were looking extremely tight at the business end of the season in particular. Comparing the first half to the second half of the season, S-Pulse’s xG Difference and shot difference all shot up significantly but curiously their goal difference remained the same…
Swapping Ryohei Shirasaki for Uno Zento seemed like an odd one during the summer but S-Pulse probably got the better deal considering Zento has started more games and scored more goals than Shirasaki at Zelvia already. Speaking of goals, it's very interesting that S-Pulse's goals have come from a huge cast of players on this team rather there being a single focal point. After main striker Koya Kitagawa's 12 goals, it's winger Lucas Braga with 8, Shinya Yajima with 6, Takashi Inui and Carlinhos on 5 a piece, and so on. S-Pulse have also been able to grab immediate results from their foreign "help" in Douglas Tanque who has 4 goals and 3 assists in under 500 minutes and Abdulaziz Yakubu who has scored 3 in less than 200!
Otherwise, S-Pulse have already achieved their average matchday attendance targets… for the 2027 season. Their 17,000+ average attendance (even if helped by one National Stadium game) was the highest in J2 by quite some margin and S-Pulse will hope for more of the same back in J1 next season as they aim to justify the construction of a new and larger stadium in the near future.
Early defeats in both domestic cups were disappointing but acceptable overall considering the focus was completely on J1 promotion. While there were some frustrating results mixed in, it was overall a fairly comfortable season. However, there remains lots of questions heading into S-Pulse's return to J1 since their first ever relegation in 2022...! I am very interested in how Tadahiro Akiba fares managing at the J1 level for the first time in his career. I have some doubts about his tactical acumen and a lot of S-Pulse’s successes have been based on just absolute player quality differentials (The Takashi Inui cheat-code, etc.) than anything else. This type of advantage is not going to shine as strongly at the J1 level…
Other data viz:
Yokohama FC (2nd, 76 Pts): 22 W / 10 D / 6 L
Location // Stadium: Yokohama // Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium
Manager: Shuhei Yomoda
60 Goals (4th); 27 Conceded (1st)
54.46 xG (2nd); 30.59 xGA (1st)
Top goal scorer: Keijiro Ogawa (7 goals), Caprini & Sho Ito (6 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Akinori Ichikawa
Yokohama FC didn’t look pretty but their titanium steel defense (well, at least until the last month of the season…) earned them yet another chance back in J1.
Yokohama have been helped by Yuri Lara's graft in the middle of the park once again (I thought he was fairly decent in J1 2023) and Boniface Nduka (who honestly looked quite out of his depth in the J1 2023) looked extremely solid as a huge part of Yokohama's league leading defense. In addition, Akinori Ichikawa seems to have finally won the starting spot in goal after years of being an understudy.
A big MVP mention should go to Akito Fukumori with a whopping 14 assists (!) from that magical left foot of his. He appears to be somewhat more defensively sound but I feel this is more as a result of not being a part of Mischa's Sapporo system anymore. I still have reservations about Fukumori's individual defensive contributions at the J1 level as even in J2 this season a lot of teams would target his side in particular by pulling him or his partner Wing Back out and then exploiting the space left behind.
The goals came from veterans Sho Ito (yes, him again at the ripe old age of 36) and Keijiro Ogawa, alongside Caprini all tied on 7 goals. Meanwhile regular striker Toshiki Takahashi did a lot of grunt work but only got 4 goals to his name while Solomon Sakuragawa had 5.
It took a nervy 0-0 draw against Renofa Yamaguchi on the final matchday to confirm 2nd place after a nearly catastrophic finish to their season where they only won once in the final 7 games. The big test is next season will Yomoda's Yokohama Yo-Yo back into J2 again...? Can Yokohama FC do much better in the off-season in terms of making signings compared to the lead-up to their disastrous 2023 season? It was a job well done in the end but lots to mull over for Yomoda and the rest of the coaching staff at Yokohama FC.
Other data viz:
V-Varen Nagasaki (3rd, 75 Pts): 21 W / 12 D / 5 L
Location // Stadium: Nagasaki // Nagasaki Peace Stadium
Manager: Takahiro Shimotaira
74 Goals (tied 2nd); 39 Conceded (6th)
55.14 xG (1st); 43.89 xGA (10th)
Top goal scorer: Matheus Jesus (18 goals)
Goalkeeper: Gaku Harada // Tomoya Wakahara
V-Varen Nagasaki narrowly missed out on an automatic promotion spot by a single point on the final day of the season. It was rather painful for the V-Varen faithful as they had been top of the table up to matchday 24 in July after which a 7 game win-less streak pushed them down into 3rd. Nagasaki did recover to only lose one game in their final 8 but it just wasn’t enough…
Despite the array of talent available, it was still very clear that a huge chunk of Nagasaki’s play goes straight through Matheus Jesus. His ability to drop or create space to receive the ball between-the-lines and turn to drive forward was really a marvel to watch all season and his whopping 18 goals and 7 assists has him as a big contender for the league-wide season MVP award. Matheus Jesus was part of a wonderful Brazilian trio at Nagasaki this season alongside Guilherme (9 goals 8 assists) and Edigar Junio (14 goals, 4 assists).
Hayato Tanaka gained his first significant career minutes on loan from Kashiwa Reysol. I was really impressed by his calmness on the ball paired with great technique to strike vertical passes into midfielders between-the-lines or spreading it out wide. He’s a left-footed Center Back that would be a boon for any team as he can really lock down the left half-space with-or-without the ball.
Defense issues were at the forefront of Nagasaki’s downturn in form as they went from 2nd least in goals conceded mid-season to 6th least at the end. From my perspective, it just felt as though they stopped being able to control the game due to all the injuries across each line with Edigar Junio being a particularly huge miss up front along with the rotating cast of Center Backs paired with Hayato Tanaka. For a large part of the final months of the season, manager Takahiro Shimotaira shifted to this weird False 9-ish role for Keita Nakamura or Matheus Jesus and it wasn’t that effective in my opinion.
While I was a bit surprised to see that V-Varen’s xGA was relatively stable throughout the season, it was still over 1 xGA for the most part and there was a small but noticeable tick upwards in the latter half of the season. Indeed their shots against, xGA per shot, among other defensive metrics were in the middle-of-the-table range in comparison to their attacking stats which were mostly in the top 3.
If you dig slightly deeper (doing a very simple split of the stats between the first half vs. second half of the season), Nagasaki’s xG difference, goal difference, and shot difference all slumped down mostly as a result of the team conceding more quantity of shots and those shots also being of higher quality.
First Half of the season (MD 1 - MD 19): 9.45 xG Difference, 21 Goal Difference, 65 Shot Difference
Second Half of the season (MD 20 - MD38): 1.8 xG Difference, 14 Goal Difference, -17 Shot Difference (!)
The veteran Hiroki Akino was a cerebral presence at the base of midfield with his calm passing and acting as the conduit for Nagasaki’s possession play. In Masaru Kato’s late season injury (?) absence, at first Riku Yamada stepped up but then Taisei Abe came to the fore in the last few months of the season to really cement his spot in the team. Asahi Masuyama has turned out to be quite a decent J2 level player in defense or attack playing different roles up-and-down the Right flank.
Tsubasa Kasayanagi is another exciting prospect to watch out for. Overall decent numbers for a 21 year old but still needs to improve a lot in terms of actual end product (creating for others, getting good quality shots, et.c) from his dribbling and ball-carrying. Yes, I say this despite his 3 goals and 7 assists this season!
In October, V-Varen Nagasaki unveiled their new stadium in the heart of downtown Nagasaki. Attendances have shot up as they now reside a mere 2 km away from the main train station instead of 25 km away in a distant separate town! Shimotaira was confirmed to be staying on for the 2025 season before the season even ended, which goes to show the support he has from the fan base and the upper management. However, they will still have to navigate the promotion play-offs which is always a difficult challenge.
Other data viz:
Montedio Yamagata (4th, 66 Pts): 20 W / 6 D / 12 L
Location // Stadium: Yamagata // ND Soft Stadium
Manager: Susumu Watanabe
55 Goals (5th); 36 Conceded (4th)
44.09 xG (10th); 44.83 xGA (13th)
Top goal scorer: Junya Takahashi (10 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Masaaki Goto
Things looked bleak for Yamagata once again as despite their huge play-off aspirations and investment they have continuously fallen down at the final hurdle. For most of 2024 it seemed like Yamagata were completely down-and-out of playoff contention, languishing in the bottom half but during the summer… the winds changed in their favor.
As you can see above, the big momentum swing came from Yamagata simply being able to score far more goals despite the fact that the team continued to create similar quality chance on average across the entire season. The two key changes have been the summer signings of Akira Disaro (Shonan Bellmare) and Shoma Doi (Kashima Antlers). Both have been in fine form with 8 goals and 5 goals / 2 assists respectively. With their efforts and the rejuvenation of other players in the squad, Yamagata got right back in the thick of it, losing only one game in 14 games since Matchday 25 in the beginning of August.
To further demonstrate this crazy overperformance in xG that fuelled Yamagata’s rise to the play-offs:
First Half of the season: -0.66 xG Difference, -5 Goal Difference, -7 Shot Difference
Second Half of the season: -0.08 xG Difference, 24 (!!!) Goal Difference, -56 (!!!) Shot Difference
… it’s very weird. Yamagata just… scored more goals even though their non-penalty xG actually went down in the second half of the season (22.37 to 21.72) and they pretty much took the same number of shots (232 to 229), all the while they conceded even more shots (239 to 285). This is why I’m not a betting man, this sport is just bonkers sometimes.
With the play-off race going to the wire, Yamagata will rue their poor start as they really could've challenged for even 2nd if things had started a bit better for them earlier, although I think some credit should go to the management sticking with manager Susumu Watanabe through the rough patch.
A big surprise for me was seeing Junya Takahashi leading the team with 11 goals. He’s been abley supported by Zain Issaka with 5 goals and 6 assists. I was always curious as to why after helping Yokohama FC achieve promotion to J1 a few years back that he decided to jump ship and switch to Yamagata. Perhaps he felt he wasn't ready to handle J1 yet? In any case, he's continued to be a very good J2 level player so I do think he's done enough now that he could challenge himself at the J1 level even if he's not exactly going to be tearing it up there or anything. Fairly big, fast, physical winger and a good outlet for a long ball when Yamagata can't quite build-up with short passes from the back.
Takashi Abe and Keisuke Nishimura continue to impress at the back with their build-up skills, given their age I can see J1 clubs being interested if Yamagata don’t get promoted this season. In the midfield, Leo Takae had a career-best season with 3 goals and 7 assists from the base of midfield as he also took over the captaincy mid-season.
Despite their good form in the 2nd half of the season, I am a bit skeptical considering overall Montedio Yamagata scored the 5th most goals from the 10th most xG and managed to only concede the 4th least goals from the 13th best xGA… Regardless of whether they get promoted via the play-offs or not, I do think there’s still lots of room for improvement here.
Other data viz:
Fagiano Okayama (5th, 65 Pts): 17 W / 14 D / 7 L
Location // Stadium: Okayama // City Light Stadium
Manager: Takashi Kiyama
48 Goals (10th); 29 Conceded (2nd)
53.69 xG (4th); 40.29 xGA (7th)
Top goal scorer: Hiroto Iwabuchi (13 goals)
Goalkeeper: Svend Brodersen
Another year, another play-off appearance for Fagiano Okayama! Under Takeshi Kiyama’s coaching the club have reached 3rd, 10th, and now 5th in the past 3 seasons. They started the season strong holding onto the top spot between matchday 3 to matchday 8 but Gleyson's injury killed their attacking momentum and that’s been the problem for Okayama this season. Despite Hiroto Iwabuchi’s heroics and Lucao’s occasional flashes of inspiration, Okayama has struggled to convert their chances as they only scored 48 goals (10th in the league) despite racking up 53.69 xG (4th best).
Okayama were able to enter final 3rd relatively often through long balls and some neat combination play between the wing Backs and midfielders but they just did not have enough creativity to score goals once they got there. It’s a bit weird to think this team had the 4th highest non-penalty xG in the league when watching them play, it always felt like a grind to me… They’ve had to rely heavily on scoring from set-pieces rather than in open-play.
On the other hand, Okayama had a somewhat good defense along with Svend Brodersen guarding the net as the last man (he’s also great at the worm!). The Back 3 was quite sturdy, good at covering for each other and tough in the air and on the ground. Kaito Abe in particular was quite good and he’s got good progressive passing as well.
Multiple attempts under Takashi Kiyama has had them close but just not nearly good enough to finish in the top 2 and then ultimately disappointing in the play-offs. Will Okayama opt to continue their trajectory and keep supporting Kiyama or will they seek to find a new way to get promoted to J1?
Other data viz:
Vegalta Sendai (6th, 64 Pts): 18 W / 10 D / 10 L
Location // Stadium: Sendai // Yurtec Stadium
Manager: Yoshiro Moriyama
50 Goals (9th); 44 Conceded (10th)
40.21 xG (15th); 44.78 xGA (12th)
Top goal scorer: Motohiko Nakajima (12 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Akihiro Hayashi
It was a new look Sendai team heading into the 2024 season as Yoshiro Moriyama, ex-coach of the Japan national team under Hajime Moriyasu, took the reins and the club opted to switch strategy to a more youthful approach to squad building. A short dip in April aside, they have kept themselves within the top 6 for the entire season.
Moriyama has drilled this team into an outfit that works really hard defensively in their 4-4-2. It’s a weird one because my perception of this team is that is is quite defensively solid… but their meager goal difference of +6 but xGD of -4.57, the not-great underlying xGA metrics, and not to mention their expected goal difference (xGD), which when you look at it from a bird’s eye view, doesn’t paint a good picture.
Sendai had a huge reliance on Motohiko Nakajima magic for most attacking output (he's taken the most shots in the team by a mile, around 3 times more than all the strikers). His creativity off the dribble and his set-pieces made him a huge threat to every opponent in J2 as he finished the season with 13 goals and 5 assists. Ryunosuke Sagara also contributed with his dribbling and neat finishing especially on counterattacks.
A lot was expected from Hiromu Kamada (yes, the younger brother of Daichi) after a breakout 2023 season but he never quite nailed down a spot under Moriyama this season, although he did finish the season strongly having started 9 out of the last 10 games of the season. All the more disappointing as fellow midfielder, the veteran Kazuki Nagasawa bizarrely left mid-way through the season for Wellington Phoenix despite still being a very solid J2 level player...
Funnily enough, I have perceived Sendai's attack this season as one of endless, hopeless crossing but in fact they are 15th in terms of crosses per game... and yet, they have scored 20% of their goals from crosses and a further 26% came from set-pieces so I think that’s where my perceptions came from.
Regardless of their underlying numbers, I think Moriyama’s arrival this season was the start of a new and improved (yet still very work-in-progress) era for Sendai after a couple of seasons spent floundering in J1 before being relegated. Given what Sendai have shown this season, I’m quite skeptical about their chances in J1 if they win the play-offs unless they make a lot of improvements. Time will tell!
Other data viz:
JEF United (7th, 61 Pts): 19 W / 4 D / 15 L
Location // Stadium: Ichihara // Fukuda Denshi Arena
Manager: Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
67 Goals (3rd); 48 Conceded (12th)
53.5 xG (5th); 38.26 xGA (4th)
Top goal scorer: Hiiro Komori (22 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Kazuki Fujita // Ryota Suzuki
(Almost) All-or-Nothing with this team, having a league-lowest(well, tied with Fujieda and S-Pulse) number of just 4 drawn games! A lot of games this season were fairly close despite what the score-lines would tell you.
A majority of JEF’s attacks ended with the tried-and-tested method of crossing it in. JEF had the 2nd most crosses per game in the league, all of which led to 21 goals scored (the most from crossing situations in the league).
The biggest recipient of this was of course, JEF’s star striker, Hiiro Komori. Komori was certainly the catalyst for JEF’s play-off push with his total of 23 league goals more than enough for top scorer in J2 this season. He’s got great movement and has a killer instinct for shooting opportunities as he reacts really well to crosses and rebounds in the box. Komori can score with Left (9 goals) and Right foot (12) along with his head (2). He added a lot of value with his excellent finishing which is why JEF were able to score far more goals than their xG suggested.
A few other players I liked were Manato Shinada, who has been wracked with injuries for most of his career but looked good in the 2nd half of the season with his incisive passing. Another player I feel has earn the right to make an individual step up to J1 is Kazuki Tanaka, whose dribbling and chance creation was very fun to watch. He finished the season on 5 goals and 9 assists.
After a somewhat slow start to the season, JEF fired themselves back up the table during a barn-storming September as they outscored their opponents 12 to 3 with Komori scoring 9 all by himself. However, it all came for naught as a disastrous penalty miss by Komori vs. Nagasaki in the penultimate game was compounded by a harrowing 0-4 defeat in a do-or-die match against Montedio Yamgata. JEF really do seem cursed and they will most likely have to start from scratch as I really do think the likes of Kazuki Tanaka and Hiiro Komori are going to be taken away by J1 clubs during the off-season…
Other data viz:
Tokushima Vortis (8th, 55 Pts): 16 W / 7 D / 15 L
Location // Stadium: Tokushima // Pocari Sweat Stadium
Manager: Tatsuma Yoshida // Kosaku Masuda (from April)
42 Goals (12th); 44 Conceded (10th)
41.82 xG (13th); 44.01 xGA (11th)
Top goal scorer: Daiki Watari (9 goals)
Goalkeeper: Jose Aurelio Suarez
It was a horror show start to the season as Tokushima Vortis were wallowing in the relegation zone up to Matchday 12 but things improved drastically after Kosaku Masuda was brought in to replace the under-fire Tatsuma Yoshida in April. Funnily enough, it looked like the defensive woes were already evaporating before he was fired…
There was still some upheaval to come as star Left (Wing) Back, Kento Hashimoto, transferred out to Albirex Niigata following a very impressive half-season. However, Vortis weren't troubled by his absence as the arrival of Tatsuya Yamaguchi from Ehime FC has been a more than capable replacement (well, before getting injured that is...) along with Soya Takada coming on as a substitute for his dribbling threat. I was a bit skeptical of Noah Kenshin Browne but he slowly got to grips with J2 and finished the season with a decent 7 goals and 3 assists, only two goals behind top scorer Daiki Watari.
In the end Vortis finished mid-table fairly comfortably in terms of both actual and expected stats. Although I will point out that in the Second Half of the season, they only conceded 16 goals from 20.28 xGA whereas in the First Half it was 28 conceded from 23.73 xGA.
Intriguingly, they were still mathematically in with a shout for a promotion play-off spot until October. Lots of introspection will be needed to look at why things went wrong the way they did and figure out a new path onward as Vortis should be aspiring for a promotion play-off spot and not languishing in the midtable. There has been a lot of squad and managerial churn over the past few years since getting demoted back into J2 in 2021 so Vortis will need to get their affairs in order on-and-off the pitch quickly during this winter off-season.
Other data viz:
Iwaki FC (9th, 54 Pts): 15 W / 9 D / 14 L
Location // Stadium: Iwaki // Hawaiians Stadium Iwaki
Manager: Yuzo Tamura
53 Goals (7th); 41 Conceded (7th)
45.13 xG (9th); 39.6 xGA (5th)
Top goal scorer: Kaina Tanimura (18 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kotaro Tachikawa
Iwaki FC were consistently in the mix for the promotion spots all season but never quite able to claim a foothold, mostly hovering just outside around 7th or 8th place. The loss of Yusuke Onishi in midfield due to injury in late May was a big factor in the club not being able to push on further in my opinion. His physicality and ball-winning was a huge boon for the team who had lost Eiji Miyamoto to Niigata before the season. Another factor was Center Back Hayato Teruyama who was plucked away by promotion rivals V-Varen Nagasaki in the summer. In turn, Kazuki Dohana was taken from regional rivals Fukushima United (J3) and he's looked quite good.
The positives continue to be the clever loan signings from J1 teams as well as the promotion of young players in the squad. Jun Nishikawa and Rui Osako (both Cerezo Osaka) along with Rio Omori (FC Tokyo) in particular had a very fruitful loan spell in particular (even if Osako dropped out of the team for most of the 2nd half of the season). Iwaki have the youngest average squad in the entire league (possibly across the entirety of the J.League) with only a single player above the age of 28!
Kaina Tanimura had a barn-storming season in front of goal with a whopping 18 goals (7 of them coming from headers, the most in the league) and a further 5 assists. It's quite likely that he'll be taken away by a J1 club this winter. A solid chunk of Iwaki’s goals came from the passing and set piece acumen of Yuto Iwashita who finished the season on 9 assists.
The big questions now are how long can Iwaki continue to replace their star players? Can they continue to pop out young stars themselves or nurture J1 team’s rising youngsters? Will stars align enough that they can make an actual J1 promotion push in the near future? Plenty of possible market movement in the off-season to think about…!
Other data viz:
Blaublitz Akita (10th, 54 Pts): 15 W / 9 D / 14 L
Location // Stadium: Akita // Soyu Stadium
Manager: Ken Yoshida
36 Goals (16th); 35 Conceded (3rd)
50.79 xG (6th); 40.18 xGA (6th)
Top goal scorer: Ren Komatsu & Daiki Sato (6 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kentaro Kakoi
Blaublitz Akita continue to have one of the league's most miserly defenses and then using that solid defense as the platform to go on short or long counterattacks. Akita are a team that love to not hold on to the ball, indeed they are the clear bottom in terms of average ball possession in the J2 league.
Even still, 38.9% of their goals come from set-pieces and a further 22.2% from crosses. They are a team that really love chucking the ball into the box at every opportunity, including long throw-ins, as soon as they arrive in the final 3rd. Ironically, Akita have conceded the most from crossing situations themselves!
Unfortunately, Akita had their main striker, Ren Komatsu, have a massive under-performance in front of goal this season with just 5 goals from 8.3 xG. However, like all players in the squad he scrapped and fought hard defensively to contribute highly to Akita’s playing principles.
It is very curious to me the rather huge gap between their goals (36) and their xG (50.79) as it is clear it’s not just Komatsu’s profligacy nor poor luck alone. Are the kind of chances that Akita create that are high in terms of quality (as according to xG) not the type of chances that are easy for Akita’s players to finish? If so, why is there such a mismatch in terms of the personnel creating these chances and the players that are supposed to be finishing them off? This is one of those times I wish I had access to more granular data rather than just totals…
It's another season where Akita finished very comfortably in mid-table. However, could Akita have pushed for a promotion playoff spot with a bit better finishing from their team in general? Their underlying numbers really surprised me in that they were 6th in not just non-penalty xGA, which makes sense, but also in terms of non-penalty xG as well! It seems Blaublitz Akita are happy to keep their J2 position as they stabilize and figure out ways to be in a good financial standing but how long can they keep this up? Is there any further ambition for a J1 promotion going forward?
Other data viz:
Renofa Yamaguchi (11th, 53 Pts): 15 W / 8 D / 15 L
Location // Stadium: Yamaguchi // Yamaguchi Ishin Park Stadium
Manager: Ryo Shigaki
43 Goals (11th); 44 Conceded (9th)
45.35 xG (8th); 35.4 xGA (3rd)
Top goal scorer: Kota Kawano (8 goals)
Goalkeeper: Kentaro Seki
Renofa Yamaguchi were a big surprise in the 1st half of the season as under Ryo Shigaki's guidance, the team looked good and were in play-off contention for most of the season. However, their momentum completely petered out after a six game losing streak that started in August, including a pair of heavy 1-4 defeats against promotion rivals S-Pulse and JEF United as they tumbled down the table. A big part of this has been the loss of Tsubasa Umeki who were plucked away by promotion rivals Vegalta Sendai. Even more painful is the fact that Umeki has mostly been sat on the Vegalta bench since his transfer.
However, looking at the numbers it’s a curious case of the xGA being somewhat stable throughout the course of the season (with only a slight bump up in the August slump) while their goals conceded jumped straight up… In the second half of the season, Renofa actually conceded fewer non-penalty xGA (16.83) but somehow conceded 29 goals against. So did Renofa really get worse or did they just hit an unlucky patch at exactly the wrong time and wrong opponents?
Renofa Yamaguchi are a side that mostly set up in a mid-block with the occasional high press depending on the situation/opposition. While it’s easy to lock them in as a “long ball” team on first watch, in reality they do mix it up by trying to play out from the back as well. Their shape can switch between a Back 3 and Back 4 easily as Kaili Shimbo can push up as a Wing Back/Winger while the rest of the defenders shuffle over (Takayuki Mae inverting to become the Right Center Back) or one of the double-pivot would drop next to the Center Backs. I quite liked Renan in particular, strong in the air and was very good at covering for Shimbo bombing forward.
Yamato Wakatsuki, the speed star did his utmost with 7 goals and 4 assists along with a lot of tireless running down the flanks chasing long/through balls. Kota Kawano led the team by example as a very young captain with 8 goals. Unfortunately he suffered a huge injury in late September but his ability to play out wide or slightly inside allowed him to create a strong partnership with Left Back Kaili Shimbo behind him. In case you missed it, I did a deep dive on Kaili Shimbo back in the summer:
Shogun Soccer Scouting #4: Kaili Shimbo
Hi all! I’m back with another Shogun Soccer Scouting feature… on Kaili Shimbo.
There’s been lots of deserved praise for Ryo Shigaki and Renofa Yamaguchi have had their best league finish since the 2018 season when they came 8th. However, their desperate summer recruitment to modify the team in the absence of Umeki didn't really pan out as Noriyoshi Sakai, Ryusei Shimodo, Sarach Yooyen (who has since ended his loan spell), and Yohei Okuyama all struggled following their mid-season arrival. Ultimately, this was a season of "what could've been" but on a more positive note, Ryo Shigaki does seem to be a rising star in the J.League managerial world and there are expectations that Yamaguchi can continue punching above their weight next season.
Other data viz:
Roasso Kumamoto (12th, 46 Pts): 13 W / 7 D / 18
Location // Stadium: Kumamoto // Egao Kenko Stadium
Manager: Takeshi Oki
53 Goals (8th); 62 Conceded (18th)
41.79 xG (14th); 46.17 xGA (15th)
Top goal scorer: Daichi Ishikawa (10 goals)
Goalkeeper: Ryuga Tashiro
It was another pretty disappointing campaign flirting with relegation once again. Kumamoto never pushed higher than 12th in the table as they really struggled defensively with goalkeeper Ryuga Tashiro being called into action far too many times. A four game winning streak in September did ultimately mean they finished comfortably in mid-table though.
This season saw the return of Daichi Ichikawa to top form after injury derailed his and in general Roasso’s 2023 season, contributing with 10 goals and 3 assists. Most came in the 2nd half of the season to really turn Kumamoto’s fortunes around. Another attacker of note was Shoji Toyama, who arrived on loan from Gamba Osaka in the summer and had an immediate impact with 3 goals and 3 assists.
To me, the real gem unearthed this season has been Ayumu Toyoda, who was very good in this Wing Back-slash-Midfielder position in their unique 3-3-1-3 (or 3-Diamond-3 if you prefer) system. A really sharp passer across the entirety of the pitch.
Kumamoto have been on a lot of people’s radar for a while under Takeshi Oki’s tenure at the club. An interesting pass-heavy play style (league highest average ball possession and most average passes per game) that has very mixed results but consistently high level of technical play paired with a rather porous defense. Takeshi Oki’s contract has been renewed for another season and I expect a few players will be heading out so it'll be another transfer merry-go-round at Kumamoto over the winter once again.
All data viz:
Fujieda MYFC (13th, 46 Pts): 14 W / 4 D / 20 L
Location // Stadium: Fujieda // Fujieda Soccer Stadium
Manager: Daisuke Sudo
38 Goals (15th); 57 Conceded (tied 14th)
36.35 xG (17th); 56.75 xGA (18th)
Top goal scorer: Ken Yamura (12 goals plus 3 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Kai Kitamura
Fujieda had a very bad start to the season with the Shizuoka club floundering in the relegation zone up to around May but things under manager Daisuke Sudo stabilized into a mid-table position for most of the season. A big reason was Ken Yamura’s goal scoring exploits (mainly through his sheer volume rather than quality of shots). I thought the club would reel from losing Kento Nishiya mid-season to Sagan Tosu, who ironically are now going to be joining Fujieda in J2 next season due to Tosu’s relegation.
However losing players, even in mid-season, is no surprise for Fujieda and they seem to be able to continue trucking along with their pipeline of recruitment, training, and good scouting. I would still be wary due to the fact that their underlying numbers were extremely poor throughout the season… They had a shot differential (shots - shots against) of -107 in the second half of the season!
Following their rise from J3 in 2023, Fujieda have not suffered from "second season syndrome" and are now a somewhat comfortable fixture in the J2 league now as their cozy little stadium continues to be expanded and the regional rivalry games vs. Shimizu S-Pulse were a spectacle to watch. A big topic is how the club wants to move forward from here and whether manager Daisuke Sudo might be plucked away by other clubs in the near future.
Other data viz:
Ventforet Kofu (13th, 45 pts.): 12 W / 9 D / 17 L
Location // Stadium: Kofu // JIT Recycle Ink Stadium
Manager: Yoshiyuki Shinoda // Shinji Otsuka
54 Goals (6th); 57 Conceded (tied 14th)
46.96 xG (7th); 42.21 xGA (8th)
Top goal scorer: Adailton (12 goals plus 2 penalties)
Goalkeeper: Tsubasa Shibuya
After the 2023 season where they narrowly missed out on the promotion play-offs but managed to advance from the Asian Champions League group stage (as a second division club!), a majority of their good players were plucked away by J1 or rival teams. These included Motoki Hasegawa (J1 club Albirex Niigata), Hidehiro Sugai (J1 club Kashima Antlers), Shion Inoue (J1 club Nagoya Grampus), and Sota Miura (J1 club Kawasaki Frontale). To off-set this they brought in the likes of Yuta Imazu, Taiga Son, Takahiro Iida, Adailton, and Fabian Gonzalez among others but it hasn't been enough as shown by their league position and the firing of their manager. In the summer, things got worse as their best defender, Yuta Imazu, was taken away by J1 side Sagan Tosu with no time/money to find a replacement.
Ventforet Kofu continued to disappoint in the league and were not able to get anywhere near the promotion play-offs (let alone direct promotion) despite a decent, expensive squad (relative to J2). This led to manager Yoshiyuki Shinoda being fired in the beginning of July and replaced by Shinji Otsuka, who had been a first team coach for Kofu since 2021. Things have slightly stabilized under Otsuka but ultimately it's another disappointing season for the club that was aiming for promotion back to J1 this season.
One of the biggest issues for Kofu this season has been injuries, four separate goalkeepers have been used throughout the season. Tsubasa Shibuya is the #1 but Koh Bong-jo, Kohei Kawata, and Kodai Yamauchi have made a string of appearances as well. In defense, injuries to Eduardo Mancha and Taiga Son led to veteran Hideomi Yamamoto having to play Center Back at the ripe age of 44 on top of many midfielders also having to slot into the Back 3 as well. Right Back was their position of strength with Takahiro Iida and Masahiro Sekiguchi playing well down the flank.
Fabian Gonzalez used to lead the line before transferring out to Omiya Ardija in J3. For the 2nd half of the season it was mostly Kazushi Mitsuhira and Peter Utaka leading the line. Supporting the lone striker were a rotating unit of attacking midfielders like Yoshiki Torikai, Riku Iijima, Jumma Miyazaki, and Naoto Misawa. Another foreign player to note is the Brazilian Adailton who switched from FC Tokyo and became Kofu’s top scorer this season with 14 goals. Adailton was one of the best dribblers in the league with his powerful running style and loves to take shots as well.
Throughout Yoshiyuki Shinoda's tenure, Kofu were playing a 4-2-3-1. Kofu under Shinji Otsuka turned into a deep-defending and counter-attacking team in a 3-4-2-1 shape. They recycled the ball around a lot but due to the fact that they had so many players sitting deep, struggled to create chances in large quantities. Kofu were extremely reliant on the efficiency of Peter Utaka and Adailton to create and score chances from a lot of individual technical play.
Out-of-possession Kofu formed a mid-to-deep block 5-4-1 out-of-possession. There was barely any high pressing as Peter Utaka, Kazushi Mitsuhira, Adailton, etc. are all quite old and their energy needed to be focused on counterattacks. Despite this, they were quite vulnerable to crosses as they've conceded the most from these types of situations.
In the end though, they finished the season just hovering above the relegation zone. However, Kofu have still renewed Otsuka for the 2025 season so there will be massive pressure on him to get Kofu back up the table bright-and-early next season. A big question during the off-season is… what to do with the cadre of aging foreign strikers they have on their books? (NOTE: The man, the myth, the legend, Peter Utaka has been let go from Kofu)
Other data viz:
Mito HollyHock (15th, 44 Pts): 11 W / 11 D / 16 L
Location // Stadium: Mito // K’s Denki Stadium
Manager: Yoshimi Hamasaki // Naoki Mori (from May)
39 Goals (14th); 51 Conceded (13th)
43.27 xG (11th); 45.51 xGA (14th)
Top goal scorer: Riku Ochiai & Seiichiro Kubo (5 goals each)
Goalkeeper: Shuhei Matsubara
Mito HollyHock have survived J2 once again with a fairly young squad and a large contingent of young J1 loanees like Riku Ochiai (Kashiwa Reysol), Hidemasa Koda (Nagoya Grampus), Taika Nakashima (Consadole Sapporo), Tatsunori Sakurai (Vissel Kobe), and Shiva Nagasawa (Sagan Tosu) with varying levels of performances that may please their parent clubs. Mito are well-known for this and we can see how they have very few players over the age of 29 and those older are all veteran goalkeepers (Matsubara, Tomii, and the eternal Koji Homma). As a side note, Koji Homma is finally retiring this season so he will no longer break my Mito HollyHock squad graphs!
They've spent most of the season hovering just above the relegation zone before a… well rather than a push upwards themselves, it’s mostly been the bottom teams being far worse than Mito in the end that has secured their safety. If Shimon Teranuma had his shooting boots on (just 2 goals from 6.6 xG!), perhaps Mito would've been safe from the drop at a far earlier point in the season...
Otherwise, Haruki Arai had a very impressive season at Left Wing Back with his direct dribbling and crossing Mito's major threat in attack. Hidemasa Koda and Riku Ochiai were the most successful loanees who will return to their parent clubs with questions to ask of their managers in the 2025 pre-season. Nao Yamada is a 21 year old ball-winner at the Back that you might want to keep an eye on as well…
Other data viz:
Oita Trinita (16th, 43 Pts): 10 W / 13 D / 15 L
Location // Stadium: Oita // Showa Denko Dome
Manager: Tomohiro Katanosaka
33 Goals (tied 18th); 47 Conceded (11th)
41.98 xG (12th); 42.22 xGA (9th)
Top goal scorer: Shun Nagasawa (5 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Taro Hamada
I watched a decent amount of Oita Trinita this season because there were a few players that interested me and it was also the return of heroic manager Tomohiro Katanosaka to the helm. It was a huge slog though with calamitous build-up turnovers especially from multiple goalkeepers and defenders galore.
Compounding Oita shooting themselves in the foot in the build-up is the complete lack of attacking threat further forward highlighted by a feckless bunch of old has-beens from the time they got relegated from J1 still taking up majority of the attacking unit minutes in the team. The fact that I didn’t have to change any of the text in the “Top goal scorer” bullet point above when I copied stuff over from the mid-season review should tell you a lot! Although it does need to be said that the young attackers, Shun Ayukawa and Yusei Yashiki in particular, were largely injured throughout the season. Naoki Nomura was one of the few veterans that was really trying to do something positive in attack throughout the season.
One of the few positives from this season is Kenshin Yasuda who is a very technically tidy midfielder who is quite adept at progressing the ball up the pitch. Also the fact that he is one of the top goal scorers despite being played quite deep is emblematic of Oita’s troubles this season.
A huge winter off-season is coming as the club decides on how to navigate out of their rut. Manager Tomohiro Katanosaka has been renewed for the 2025 season which signals to me that management knows it’s not entirely his fault. Oita can count themselves very lucky that there were 3 clubs that were clearly worse than them this season...
Other data viz:
Ehime FC (17th, 40 Pts): 10 W / 10 D / 18 L
Location // Stadium: Yokohama // Ningineer Stadium
Manager: Kiyotaka Ishimaru
41 Goals (13th); 69 Conceded (20th)
37.99 xG (16th); 63.36 xGA (20th)
Top goal scorer: Taiga Ishiura (6 goals)
Goalkeeper: Shugo Tsuji
Well, the underlying data didn’t lie. Ehime FC were in 10th when I wrote my mid-season review but I was extremely skeptical about their performances and… down they dropped to a more in-line-with-expectations 17th position by November. I doubt Ehime will care because what matters most is that they survived!
An interesting aspect of Ehime has been that a lot of players pitched in to score with 11 different players on 2 goals or more. Star player has still been Ryo Kubota who has taken to J2 quite well with 4 goals and 4 assists. Ehime FC have a fairly strong youthful contingent as they slowly shed their reliance on a number of veterans over the past year, leading the pack has been the promising 22 year old Taiga Ishiura on 6 goals and 1 assist.
Losing Tatsuya Yamaguchi mid-season to Tokushima Vortis was a big blow but Yu Ye-Chan and then Gamba loanee Ibuki Konno were given a chance to somewhat decent effect.
The big bad cloud hanging over Ehime is there absolutely apalling defensive record where they finished last in the league in both goals conceded and expected goals against! They were exceptionally poor from set-pieces at either end of the pitch.
With a slight foothold in J2 once again, can Ehime improve their defense to rise up into mid-table next season?
Other data viz:
Tochigi SC (18th, 34 Pts): 7 W / 13 D / 18 L
Location // Stadium: Tochigi // Kanseki Stadium
Manager: Makoto Tanaka // Shinji Kobayashi (from May)
33 Goals (19th); 57 Conceded (tied 14th)
34.99 xG (19th); 51.75 xGA (17th)
Top goal scorer: Harumi Minamino (6 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Kenta Tanno
It's been an OK run (since 2018) but the luck has finally run out, Tochigi SC are relegated back down to J3. One of the worst attacks and worst defenses in the league and just in general near the bottom in almost every conceivable metric, it's no surprise. I mean, Tochigi SC only won one game of their last 15 of the season! On a slightly positive note they only conceded 20 goals (from 22.29 xGA) in the 2nd half of the season compared to 37 (29.46 xGA) in the 1st half…
Ko Miyazaki is the typical big, physical, no nonsense, bottom-half type striker and with 6 goals and 2 assists that’s actually OK at the individual level. One major positive was that Harumi Minamino really lit Tochigi up with his performances and he'll likely get another loan to a better J2 team next season or maybe even a J1 team by parent club Gamba Osaka. He'll have no shortage of suitors that's for sure! … Not that that helps Tochigi SC at all though.
Ironically, Tochigi City FC are coming up into J3 due to their good performances in the JFL so… we will see a Tochigi Derby of all things in the J3 soon! So, uh, that’s something to look forward to! ** spills the straws I’ve been desperately grasping **
More data viz:
Kagoshima United (19th, 30 Pts): 7 W / 9 D / 22 L
Location // Stadium: Kagoshima // Shiranami Stadium
Manager: Yasuaki Oshima // Tetsuya Asano (from May)
35 Goals (17th); 59 Conceded (18th)
35.82 xG (18th); 46.24 xGA (17th)
Top goal scorer: Noriaki Fujimoto (4 goals plus 1 penalty)
Goalkeeper: Ryota Izumori
After finishing runner’s up in J2, the winter off-season didn't inspire much confidence in me as their transfer dealings looked more like a team that was still in J3 rather than one preparing for J2. Charles Nduka, in particular, was a big transfer miss with only 2 goals and 10 starts, although you can say he’s probably going to be useful back down in J3 again.
I suppose a club with the budget of Kagoshima is going to find it hard to splash the cash and they want a more sustainable way to move up the J.League ladder? So not spending beyond one's means and trying to survive, no huge foul if not, seems reasonable if slightly defeatist. This is why I was a bit surprised to see how disappointed people online seemed to be about Kagoshima United and grousing about how they didn’t do enough. For me it was pretty clear it was going to be a very difficult season from the start.
Goalkeeper Ryota Izumori might be interesting to various J2 teams along with Shosei Okamoto who is still on-loan from Albirex Niigata. They will need to clean up their squad, especially moving on the veterans who don’t seem to have the legs anymore. Indeed, Yuji Kimura is retiring while Noriaki Fujimoto has already been released by the club. On the other hand, 31 year old did Shota Suzuki got 4 goals and 7 assists. I imagine they'll be quite competitive in J3 again next season especially as they have announced that Naoki Soma will be their new manager in 2025.
Other data viz:
Thespakusatsu Gunma (20th, 18 Pts): 3 W / 9 D / 26 L
Location // Stadium: Gunma // Shoda Shoyu Stadium
Manager: Tsuyoshi Otsuki // Akira Muto (from May)
24 Goals (20th); 62 Conceded (tied 18th)
30.1 xG (20th); 57.67 xGA (19th)
Top goal scorer: Ryo Sato (4 goals)
Goalkeeper: Masatoshi Kushibiki
An absolute mess from Gunma from the higher-ups all the way down to the players on the pitch as they only won 3 games the entire season. Their misery was compounded by the captain, Center Back Hayate Shirowa, jumping ship for Montedio Yamagata in the summer. The data isn’t pretty with Gunma posting the least amount of opponent penalty box entries which of course leads to least amount of goals, shots, and shots on target (source: Football-Lab). 2024 will be a season to forget and the club will have to do a massive rebuilding in J3 as things are starting to get more competitive in the lower divisions of the J.League...
All data viz:
Squad Age Profiles
I changed the calculation of a squad's median age up a bit by simply taking into account only players that have played 50% of more of total possible league minutes. This is so when looking at the 'average' age of a team, we're doing a better job of considering players who are regulars in the team. I am not sure how other people might do it but from playing around with the raw data it looks OK, most teams have around 9~12 players that meet this threshold so I do think I'm capturing the right selection of players in any given team.
Anyway, here's the list of the U-23 players in the league with the most minutes played so far this season (filtered for those that have played more than 50% of total possible league minutes). You might want to keep an eye on these guys in the short-to-medium term. One of the simplest ways to judge a player’s quality is minutes played. It doesn’t matter how much talent you have or how much potential if, in the end, you don’t actually see minutes on the pitch to show it off!
Time Interval
Ideally I would use a 15 minute interval so I could get rid of that one weird section straddling both halves (40-50th minute) but this was the easiest data set I could get. What's noticeable from this data set is that the good teams generally know how to close out a game and don’t concede many goals in the last 10~20 minutes.
Scoring Situations
Ideally, I would have data that concerns all shots or xG accumulated from different match situations as that would mean a much larger sample of data to power any insights (as goals are only the end result and may not give us information about a team's actual performance).
Team Shot Quantity & Team Shot Quality
In the previous few sections we got to know a lot about the goals that J.League teams scored. However, in a sport like soccer/football goals are hard to come by, they might not really accurately represent a team’s actual ability or performance (even if ultimately, it's the end result that matters). To take things one step further I was able to gather data from Sporteria on shot quantity to dive a bit more into team performances. I’ve reversed the order of some of the stats in these next few plots so that in all cases the top right is best and bottom left is the worst teams when looking at their respective stats.
So, what exactly is expected goals (xG)? Expected goals is a statistic where a model assigns a probability (between 0 and 1) that a shot taken will result in a goal based on a variety of variables and is used for evaluating the quality of chances and predicting players’ and teams’ future performances. A xG model only looks at the variables up to the point that the player touches the ball for a shot. Post-shot xG models covers the information about where in the frame of the goal the shot went (“post” as in all the information after the player touches the ball for the shot) but I won’t cover that here.
For some quick primers on xG check the links below:
The following two sections use xG data from Football-Lab. I’m not privy to all of what goes into their model but the explanation page on their website (in Japanese) tells us about some of the information they used:
Distance from goal?
Angle from goal line?
Aerial duel?
Body part used?
Number of touches? (one touch, more than two touches, set plays, etc.)
Play situation? (Corner kick, direct/indirect free kick, open play, etc.)
So, the usual variables that you might recognize from other xG models are being considered. Combining shot quantity and shot quality numbers gives you a much better idea about a team’s performance on either side of the ball.
xG Difference
xG Difference is pretty much the same thing as Goal Difference except that we use xG and xGA rather than goals and goals against. This lets us see very quickly which teams generally outperformed their opponents in terms of quality of chances created to quality of chances conceded based on a xG model. This time around I also included the team's results inside the bubble points. So it's easier to see whether a team that had a positive xGD in a specific match couldn't manage to win the game or vice-versa. You ideally want to be below the diagonal line and winning (W) these games as well.
Five Match Rolling Averages
Goals vs. Goals Against
xG vs. xGA
xG vs. Goals
xGA vs. Goals Against
Summary
Shimizu S-Pulse became the J2 league champions and putting bed the nightmare of the previous season as they assured themselves of an automatic promotion spot back to J1. Following them was Yokohama FC who will be a bit worried a season ending slump led them to surrendering the J2 crown.
It was another season where the play-off race came down to the wire. JEF United lost out in agonizing fashion as a resurgent Montedio Yamagata battered them 4-0 to take 4th spot while Vegalta Sendai’s squeezed past Oita Trinita to assure them of the final 6th place spot. As such the match-ups for the play-offs semi-finals on December 1st will be:
V-Varen Nagasaki (3rd) vs. Vegalta Sendai (6th)
Montedio Yamagata (4th) vs. Fagiano Okayama (5th)
Other stories include the opposite fortunes of Tokushima Vortis and Renofa Yamaguchi, with the former looking dangerously close the relegation in the early part of the season to finish very comfortably in 8th, while Yamaguchi were surprise contenders for a play-off spot until disappointingly finishing in 11th.
There’s not a whole lot to say about the relegation battle aside from the fact that the teams going down indeed deserved it with very abject performances. However, you could say Ehime were very lucky to have finished with their heads just above water as their horrific defensive efforts could’ve easily tanked them in any other season.
All-in-all it was another exciting J2 season with a lot of storylines to follow up-and-down the table. Hopefully this review gave you an overview of what transpired.
Thanks for reading!
Great work!
Fantastic stuff as always Ryo!
My theory on Akita is that they generate lots of xG on goal mouth scrambles …I have no data to back this up but Sporteria count each shot individually which has frustrated me as Verdy were given 1.3xG for a goalmouth scramble with 4-5 shots vs Gamba this year (they only generated 0.4xG in the rest of the game)…but I digress…I wonder what you thought about Ushizawa if Mito, could he move to J1 in the future? Also has Yumiba at Oita plateaued a bit?