Wataru Endo drops out of the Japan squad due to injury
Exploring the fall-out & Hajime Moriyasu's thinking
It was the opening day of the World Cup and already there’s been some shocking news! Wataru Endo is officially out of the Japan squad.
Endo came back from injury in late May and even started the Iceland friendly but came off injured at half-time. There was some hope he would be able to recover but as the days passed, Endo just kept missing sessions and now it’s been decided that he will not take part in the World Cup at all. That wasn’t all as Endo then announced on Twitter that he would be retiring from the Japan national team going forward.
Consequently, Ko Itakura was named the new captain while Shuto Machino was called up as the replacement. This raised a lot of eyebrows and drew fury online from people flabbergasted that a central midfield replacement (Hidemasa Morita, Joel Fujita, Kodai Sano, etc.) wasn’t called up. For a chronological view of what transpired, Masakuni Yamamoto (JFA Technical Director) answered questions in an interview.
I’ll go through some of what I think Moriyasu’s thought processes are given his previous selections and how the squad has shaped up (especially with Mitoma’s injury) in the past month. Also please note that I am quite wary and skeptical of Moriyasu’s choices here but it’s much more productive to talk about things from his perspective and I imagine that’s what people want to know.
Oh and before we start, I do want to announce that I’ve started writing for Hudl/StatsBomb, covering Asian football. I wrote my first piece a few weeks ago on some J1 talents to keep an eye on, here.
Anyway, let’s get started!
The low number of Central Midfielders (Part Two?)
This is something I discussed quite a bit in a previous articles (for The Asian Game and my post-Iceland review) but nonetheless it needs to be discussed again in this new context. I think after the somewhat successful implementation in the Iceland friendly that Moriyasu is very dead-set on counting Ayumu Seko as the 4th/extra Center Midfielder. What Moriyasu has been concerned about is the team’s height against long balls and set-pieces so I think this is why he has elected to pursue a surplus of Center Back options that can also play in midfield. In the squad announcement presser he not only mentioned Seko but also Ko Itakura. Moriyasu had also played Takehiro Tomiyasu in midfield during the 2019 Asian Cup until regular midfielders were able to return. This consideration of “height” and “power” is also seen in his selections of Koki Ogawa and Shuto Machino but we’ll get to that later.
In that sense, given how little time Kodai Sano was able to audition and make his case it is understandable (again, from Moriyasu’s perspective) why he wasn’t chosen. The double pivot is absolutely crucial to how the entire system functions so it is not something you throw a player into lightly especially at a World Cup. Switching to my own personal opinion, given Kodai’s talent I really do think he should’ve been integrated far earlier into the set-up. Given the constraints of the squad, I do think the more versatile midfield profiles of Kodai Sano or Joel Fujita were more appropriate than the calls for Hidemasa Morita (for more on my thoughts on Morita, read my section on him for The Asian Game) or an additional attacker.
One last thing I will add is that perhaps the alternative is to focus more on a single pivot system instead. Not to start games or for the majority of game-time but in certain situations like late on in the Scotland game (see below). Playing a 3-1-4-2 would mean there is only one real pivot player needed while the #8/#10 positions can be taken by far more attacking players. Defensively it’s not ideal but Japanese attackers can always be relied upon to have a high defensive work-rate and in any case, I imagine Moriyasu will only do this if Japan absolutely needs to risk everything to score so defensive concerns would be secondary anyway.
Shuto Machino’s inclusion
Now let’s talk about Shuto Machino. This past season after transferring to Borussia Mönchengladbach he had a poor time, even with some leeway for how horrible the team were in general. Machino didn’t nail down a spot and usually came on in the dying minutes of games. Nevertheless he has regularly been called up to the national team, even if he hasn’t played that many minutes. So what does Machino bring?
Additional height for set-piece defending
Again, we go back to “height”. I think Machino’s selection shows how concerned Moriyasu is about opponent set-pieces given our group stage opponents. Machino was subbed on for this reason late on against England back in March (and so was Ogawa). Of course, he can also be a nuisance in the box at the other end too.
Synergy as an attacker familiar with the formation
Shuto Machino has played in this kind of 3-4-2-1 system across many teams and league contexts (Shonan Bellmare, Holstein Kiel, now Gladbach) and while he doesn’t get many minutes with the national team, he has been involved in the training and tactical sessions so he knows the playing style extremely well. To me, it seems that the left-sided #10 position is still very much up-for-grabs in Moriyasu’s mind especially after Junya Ito didn’t look completely comfortable on the Left vs. Iceland.
Long throw-ins and penalty taking
Machino’s “special skills” include being able to take long throw-ins and also scoring penalties. In a tournament like the World Cup these niche skills could be a difference in key moments.
On top of all of these skills, Machino is also a player that doesn’t create a fuss about being in a squad/sub role. A big topic that has come up is that people are deriding the inclusions of “five~six players for one Striker position”. However, as we’ve seen in previous friendlies, a lot of these players are instead playing the #10/”shadow-striker” role behind the main forward. To me, the only true #9s at the tip of the formation are Ayase Ueda with Koki Ogawa backing him up. Of course, Keisuke Goto, Kento Shiogai, Shuto Machino, and even Daizen Maeda can play there too but it seems most likely given what we’ve seen so far that they’ll play slightly behind the striker or Moriyasu will switch to a Front 2.
Of course, even with a potential reliance on more of a Front 2, I do agree with quite a few people that it is still a lot of attackers for the forward positions. However, the number of players here gives Moriyasu an extreme amount of potential combinations and versatility for many different situations. It seems as though Moriyasu is sacrificing some depth in midfield for having a multitude of threatening options in attack1.
This World Cup is scheduled in a way that there are more days off between game-days until you get to the deeper knock-out stages compared to before so I think Moriyasu is banking on having Daichi Kamada and Kaishu Sano play the majority of the minutes no matter what with Ao Tanaka and Ayumu Seko deputizing. Of course, injuries and card suspensions are two ways that can throw a huge wrench into these plans which is why I personally would’ve preferred Kodai Sano or Joel Fujita instead.
As a side-note: Given how top-heavy the team is now, I also think this means that both Junya Ito and Daizen Maeda might be kept at Wing Back instead. The one exception being that I think Maeda could play further forward against the Netherlands given his pressing ability.
Ko Itakura as the new Captain
According to reports, Wataru Endo had a discussion with Ko Itakura on the night before he left the camp to handover the captaincy. Itakura has been a solid favorite of Moriyasu, even when I felt that he has played poorly (the previous Asian Cup being a big example…). His historic transfer to Ajax this past season went extremely poorly due to injuries and there was honestly a big question of whether he might actually get into the World Cup squad given how various defenders made a strong case in his absence. However, Itakura recovered in time, made it in, and now has the added pressure of the captain’s armband.
This news has me thinking he might actually start in the Back 3 but it does need reminding that the captaincy is no guarantee of playing time given Wataru Endo himself didn’t play much and even lost his starting spot to Kaishu Sano. Overall, I’m not too enthusiastic about Itakura being the captain. There aren’t a lot of alternatives with Takumi Minamino also missing. It’s a bit too early to give it to Takefusa Kubo while there might have been a case for guys like Ritsu Doan, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Shogo Taniguchi. Despite my own misgivings, it’s clear that Moriyasu and the players themselves hold Itakura in high regard so fans can only hope he can deliver on and off the pitch.
I tried to give various reasons for why Moriyasu ultimately made the choices he did following Wataru Endo’s exit. I personally disagree (to varying degrees) with some of the points I discussed but nevertheless I think any debates should be framed from the manager’s perspective first and foremost.
In another round of bad luck, Shuto Machino won’t be able to join up with the squad today as two of his flights to Nashville were cancelled2! According to reports, Machino will only connect with the team in Dallas in their last training session before the Netherlands game… Not great!
To end on a somewhat positive note, Yuito Suzuki’s condition has been improving over the past few weeks and it does look like he could play some part against The Netherlands.
Thanks for reading!
Which I find amusing given one of the biggest criticisms people have about Moriyasu is that he is too conservative and defensive.
Thanks Obama.