J.League 2023 Season Preview #8: Kawasaki Frontale & Yokohama F. Marinos
Frontale and Marinos have been the best two teams in J1 for quite a few years now but is this generation of dominance from either team about to end in 2023?
Welcome to the eight and final season preview newsletter for the 2023 J.League season!
J.League 2023 Season Preview #1: Yokohama FC, Albirex Niigata, & Kyoto Sanga
J.League 2023 Season Preview #2: Gamba Osaka, Avispa Fukuoka, & Vissel Kobe
J.League 2023 Season Preview #3: Shonan Bellmare & Sagan Tosu
J.League 2023 Season Preview #4: Consadole Sapporo & Urawa Reds
J.League 2023 Season Preview #5: Nagoya Grampus & Kashiwa Reysol
J.League 2023 Season Preview #7: Kashima Antlers & Sanfrecce Hiroshima
We’re starting from the J2 runner’s up (Yokohama FC) and then finishing off with last season’s J1 champions (Yokohama F. Marinos). I’ll be covering a lot of topics for each team from transfers, tactics, my personal questions for the teams, and of course league finish predictions (subject to change as I continue writing more previews). Please don’t take my league predictions too seriously as although I do take a lot of time thinking about it, my performance last year should tell you how wildly unpredictable the J.League can be…
Let’s get started!
Kawasaki Frontale
Last Season (2022: 2nd Place)
So close, yet so far for Kawasaki Frontale as they took the title race to the last matchday but came up 2 points short. It was not smooth sailing as they had many rocky periods of their own. So despite Marinos’ own stumbles, Frontale didn’t take enough advantage to overtake the eventual champions after relinquishing their 1st place position way back in matchday 15 (late May) following a catastrophic 0-4 loss against relegation strugglers Shonan Bellmare.
As mentioned in the mid-season review Frontale yet again suffered another horrendous exit in the Champions League, somehow topping last year’s ignominious exit by being eliminated in the group stages. This team seems cursed somehow to never be able to spread their dominance of the J.League to the continent as a whole. In other cup competitions they did no better, being dumped out by J2 side Tokyo Verdy in the Emperor’s Cup and then by Cerezo Osaka in the League Cup.
For all the negativity surrounding the club (from neutrals and their own fans), despite the disappointments in every competitions, looking at the season overall from a bird’s eye point of view… Kawasaki Frontale were still a very good team. Frontale accumulated
1.22 non-penalty xG per 90
throughout the season (5th best in the league), but they were actually 3rd best in the 2nd half of the season. It’s on the defensive side of things that things weren’t very rosy, in a very particular way…
Transfers
No further changes since the previous newsletter.
Squad Composition
I am currently leaning towards Naoto Kamifukumoto starting in goal rather than Jung S.R. I don’t think Frontale would go through the effort of getting someone of Kamifukumoto’s calibre if they weren’t genuinely thinking of replacing the Korean shot-stopper.
The loss of captain and Center Back, Shogo Taniguchi is huge. Not only was he the leader in defense, especially holding the unit together while Jesiel was out injured, but his good progressive passing skills from the back was probably an underrated part of his game that Frontale will miss. It was a rough 2022 for star Center Back, Jesiel, as he suffered a long term injury at the end of the 2021 season and only came back to play in the summer. A full pre-season should do wonders to knock off some of the rustiness he showed after his return. I believe that Shintaro Kurumaya will start next to Jesiel for the time being, his ball-carrying abilities from the back is highly prized by manager Tohru Oniki and it’s why he’s not really seen as a Left Back option anymore. Takuma Ominami might eventually come in but I think he might play as a Right Back (as he did numerous times at Reysol) to start off as he gets used to Frontale’s style of play. Full Back should still be manned by Miki Yamane on the Right and Kyohei Noborizato should be on the Left, well if he is fit… which hasn’t been a given this past year or so. So we could see Asahi Sasaki make the Left Back spot his own this year especially as it’s quite clear Shintaro Kurumaya is needed at Center Back.
The midfield picks themselves with Joao Schmidt taking over the single pivot role meaning that Kento Tachibanada gets pushed up slightly ahead alongside the effervescent Yasuto Wakizaka. I think Tachibanada is much better in the holding role as he isn’t super creative in the final 3rd as you might want a box-to-box midfielder to be but Schmidt’s excellent passing range and aerial ability shielding the defense can’t be ignored. For a more attack-minded change we might see Ryota Oshima come in for Tachibanada or he might play in the single pivot role but this all depends on his atrocious fitness record these past few years which has robbed J.League fans all over of his great talent. Chanathip had a rough first season but hopefully he’s a bit more attuned to Frontale’s system and can show everybody he is much more than a simple “marketing” signing (I really hate that term…).
Akihiro Ienaga might (?) miss the first game of the season through injury. Given Yusuke Segawa’s profile/style of play, he seems like a medium-term replacement for Ienaga so I’m not imagining him playing in the midfield 3, especially since it’s so crowded already as discussed above. The Left Wing is pretty set with Marcinho ready to rev his engines and terrorize J.League defense for yet another year. Frontale have had to fend off many suitors in the past 6 months showing how well thought of the Brazilian is, not just in Japan but the rest of the world too.
Both regular strikers, Yu Kobayashi and Leandro Damiao have medium-to-long term injuries. So this is a perfect time for Taisei Miyashiro and Shin Yamada to stake a claim as the veterans won’t be available until late March at the earliest according to reports. Frontale need to be freshening up their attack regardless, so those two getting plenty of minutes should be a good litmus test to see if they are indeed the ones for the future.
Playstyle
Frontale’s attack (and defense) revolves around keeping the ball in the opposition half. They don’t like passing it around in their own half of the field compared to other possession-based teams and if necessary, will play it long to a striker or Marcinho/Ienaga if they have to. From Center Back, Shintaro Kurumaya has excelled as a ball carrier from deep while as said previously both Jesiel and Taniguchi were good at finding players further forward as well. At times the single pivot, like Joao Schmidt, can drop back and spray accurate long balls high or wide if the defenders are under a bit of strain.
When in the middle and final 3rd of the pitch, Frontale players create lots of passing triangles to ultimately create good quality chances from crossing positions, especially dangerous cut-backs or passes across the face of the goal.
Attacks from the Right Wing or Half-space are particularly dangerous due to the great chemistry built up by the unit of Miki Yamane, Yasuto Wakizaka, and Akihiro Ienaga in the past few years as their quick pass-and-move combinations can slice through any J.League defense. On the Left, you have Marcinho who is an extremely dangerous dribbler and in 2022 was also the recipient of the passing moves on the Right to finish from his Left side.
A common sight over the past few years has been Akihiro Ienaga drifting around, at times all the way to the opposite Left Wing. This was both a good … and a bad thing. The good was that he could cause overloads and wreck havoc to defensive structures as an extra option but the bad was that on the defensive he was on the opposite side of where he’s supposed to be. While other players can cover, that then that leaves their spaces open too! Even when Ienaga was defending on his own side, his pressing output hasn’t been as good as in the past and it’s made even worse as the players behind him were struggling to cover their own players and push up to cover for Ienaga at the same time. I’m always wary of veteran players heading into a new season, no matter how good they are, because Father Time catches up to everybody at some point (I wouldn’t nearly have as strong words for somebody just slightly past 30 but Ienaga is nearly 37 now). Of course, Frontale have just brought in Segawa, while Tono or even Miyashiro can also play wide, then you have even younger guys like Einaga and Myogan who can fill in as well.
Of course, this isn’t just about Ienaga but as a team, Frontale don’t seem nearly as coordinated nor sharp in both high press and counter-pressing situations as in the years past, even if it is still better than most teams in the league...
Note: Below data is only up to May so I’ll update this later with my own chart if I have time (spoiler: their high pressing is not nearly as bad as below but still not great).


Indeed, it seems that Frontale have had a hard time against teams that both run a lot and play a high transition game (below data is only up to May 2022 but from watching most Frontale games last season I do think it holds up). It also doesn’t help that for all of Kurumaya and Yamamura’s qualities, they aren’t exactly great at defending space or quick counterattacks that Frontale seemingly have become more vulnerable to. Shogo Taniguchi can do only so much himself and while having Jesiel back helped, it did seem like the Brazilian wasn’t exactly at 100% throughout his return. I imagine with a longer winter break and a full pre-season Jesiel should be back to his best this season.
To me, it’s not just about the pressing but I do get the feeling that Frontale simply don’t dominate games like they used to by keeping possession in the opponent half and being able to keep control on the speed/intensity of games to their favor. This has meant they’ve lost possession more often which leads to more transition opportunities for the opponent and the stuff I talked about above unfolds. A lot of these problems have been papered over in the past year as Frontale have been able to grind out results. Many of these results have come from a distinct knack for scoring set-piece goals at crucial points in games, so that’s another thing to look out for when playing against them.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Can Taisei Miyashiro become the main striker as Damiao and Kobayashi start out injured and are also yet another year older? In the meantime, can Ienaga (with or without his penalty-taking) and Marcinho continue their goal-scoring form in 2023 to compensate? How will Shin Yamada figure into the turmoil up top?
How well will Ominami integrate into the team? Will he start off as a Right Back and gradually move to Center Back or vice-versa?
Will Frontale have a much better Asian Champions League campaign this year and reach at least the Quarter Finals (or more!) for the first time since 2017?
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: (1st) t.b.a., (2nd) Sanfrecce Hiroshima, (3rd) Kawasaki Frontale
Upper mid-table: (4th) Cerezo Osaka, (5th) FC Tokyo, (6th) Kashima Antlers, (7th) Urawa RedsMid-table: (8th) Vissel Kobe, (9th) Nagoya Grampus, (10th) Kashiwa Reysol, (11th) Sagan TosuLower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) Shonan Bellmare, (15th) Consadole SapporoRelegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
In the end, the 2022 season was a massive downgrade on their 2021 performances but they still finished 2nd… that may be more of an indictment of the rest of the league than Frontale possibly, but still! Over the past 2 seasons since their dominant 2020 championship season they’ve shown clear weaknesses, they continuously disappoint in the Champions League, their squad depth issues have never been totally addressed to fan satisfaction (although it’s clear that this is in odds with how Frontale’s front office and Oniki himself sees things and that’s ultimately what matters).
And yet… and yet … despite my own past misgivings and those of countless others, they manage to just keep grinding out wins and for the most part when looking at performances from a bird’s-eye-view, they definitely have been one of, if not the best team in the J.League for the past 3 years! I don’t think Frontale fans realize how lucky they have been these past few years to watch an extraordinary generation of success over the past nearly 10 years.
Still, it’s very rare for teams especially in the J.League to have sustained success for so long and 2023 really could just be Frontale’s time to drop off… ever so slightly. Their starting XI is still excellent and the fact that the season schedule is pretty kind without any crazy consecutive weekend-weekday rounds should help Frontale maintain consistency. Lots of pre-season reports have been talking about using a Back 3, or at the very least Miki Yamane having a fluid role in the build-up, so it’ll be interesting to see how that unfolds as the season goes on. This will be Tohru Oniki’s 7th year in charge so there is a need to shake things up. I feel this will be more of a transition season for Frontale and I have them finishing 3rd, out of the top 2 for the first time since 2019 and only for the second time since 2015.
Links
Yokohama F. Marinos (2022: J1 Champions)
Last Season
Despite taking over from Ange Postecoglou and guiding them to a 2nd place finish in 2021, there were lots of concerns about the team and the new manager, fellow Aussie Kevin Muscat, heading into 2022 (from myself included!). By the time of the mid-season review I updated my prior assumptions and marveled at how well Marinos were able to navigate another busy schedule of games throughout the season. The one big disappointment would be their Champions League exit to (at the time) a Vissel Kobe team in upheaval but they’ll have another chance next year with a bit more experience under their belt, both Muscat and the players. By all metrics this team was just clearly the best team in the league, especially when it comes to their attacking output.
67 non-penalty goals
from57 non-penalty xG
were the best numbers in the league by a big margin (next placed teams were Urawa Reds on47 non-penalty xG
and Kawasaki Frontale on57 non-penalty goals
). Overall, their goal difference (both actual and xG related) also showed their dominance over the 34 game season. They not only took the most shots (535
) but also took quality shots with0.107 non-penalty xG per Shot
being 2nd best in the league. For defensive metrics they were slightly more middle of the rankings but it was far improved from their disastrous 2020 season when their high line was broken again and again.
Transfers
Tomoki Iwata was officially announced for Celtic, mere minutes after I sent my winter transfers newsletter on Marinos, funnily enough. Starting goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka left for Vancouver Whitecaps within the past fortnight, drawing the ire of Kevin Muscat. In his place comes... Hiroki Iikura who used to mind the net for Marinos 3 years ago.
Squad Composition
Probably the biggest concern is at goalkeeper as Marinos didn’t really expect Takaoka to leave so suddenly. Still, Powell Obinna Obi has been a part of the 1st Team for quite a few years now (with some loans in between) and knows exactly what is expected of a Marinos goalkeeper. Ahead of the Super Cup, manager Kevin Muscat confirmed that Obi would start and talked about how Hiroki Iikura would offer a veteran presence to the goalkeeper unit. So it’s Obi’s spot to lose as the season goes on I guess.
The big questions in defense are who partners Eduardo and who fills in for Ryuta Koike while he’s out with injury for the first few games. At Right Back this usually defaults to Ken Matsubara but I’ve heard that he’s injured or at least not fully fit as well? At worst, the veteran Yuki Saneto could also be shifted over to cover Right Back. I imagine Katsuya Nagato will continue at Left Back after consistently winning the spot from Yuta Koike last season. At Center Back it will be a competition between new signing Takumi Kamijima and Shinnosuke Hatanaka. Hatanaka had a poor season in 2022, by his standards, as his lingering injury issues from 2021 contributed to his poor form and he’ll hope to be back at 100% in 2023 to regain his spot back in the team.
While Tomoki Iwata will be a big miss, in midfield Marinos have already become accustomed to playing without him there as last season Iwata moved down to Center Back. Kota Watanabe and Joel Fujita got a lot more minutes in the engine room than they otherwise would have and it should prepare them a lot more for 2023. It’s likely still to be Takuya Kida partnered by Kota Watanabe rather than Joel Fujita. With the departure of Iwata, Riku Yamane will be bumped up a place in the depth chart.
On the wings, with Ryo Miyaichi not expected back until March, Yan Mateus and Kaina Yoshio will probably shift over to the Left to cover for Elber while on the Right, Kota Mizunuma should continue to start with new signing Kenta Inoue hoping to usurp the veteran once he gets up to speed with the Marinos style of play. To me, Yan Mateus is supposed to be the Nakagawa medium/long-term replacement while Kenta Inoue is the long-term Mizunuma replacement. Could Teruhito Nakagawa (and Mizunuma) have continued to play at a very high level for the next 2~3 years? Yep sure but… you want your player’s legs to go on somebody else’s team, not yours and Marinos have been doing this squad re-freshening thing quite well in the past few years in my opinion (letting Ogihara, Wada, Amano, Theerathon, etc. all go).
Up top will be Anderson Lopes and with the departure of Leo Ceara, he’ll be backed up by Asahi Uenaka and Yuhi Murakami. If Takuma Nishimura is not playing as the #10, he could fill the #9 role as well. Marcos Jr. seems far too good to be left on the bench but he’ll turn on the style whenever he makes an appearance.
Playstyle
It’s easy to say that Marinos like to keep the ball but really their game is about space. Passing and keeping the ball is only a means to the end of moving the opponent so that, in turn, Marinos can move past them.
With goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka acting as the extra man in the buildup, Marinos are able to break past opponent pressing. Their players work together to create space by luring opponent marker off a Marinos player so that another Marinos player can be in a optimal position to receive facing forwards. Marinos players also by distance themselves from each other in an optimal way to spread their opponents far apart and force them to exert more energy to approach Marinos defenders. Further up-field the fullbacks (usually Ryuta Koike and Katsuya Nagato) are either hugging the touchline or slightly inverted to support the central midfielders, who in turn either remain as a double pivot or can spread themselves out vertically, depending on how the opponent defended.
From center midfield Kota Watanabe appears as a constant option for defenders in the build-up, just to bounce passes off of or be able to turn and play the ball up-field himself.
His erstwhile rival for the Center Midfield spot, Joel Fujita, on the other hand is more of a player that likes to create in the final 3rd.
In the final 3rd, Kota Mizunuma was a fantastic crosser while Elber excelled in all areas from chance-creation through dribbling and passing as well as getting on the end of chances to score. Takuma Nishimura was the surprise of the season as with not only non-stop running when defending but also in attack to constantly find space to always give his teammates an extra passing option when under pressure. In the box Nishimura was a menace, being able to make smart runs time and time again to score some very important goals with both feet and his head!
Eduardo, while he had a bit of a shaky start in a new team, became rock solid and was excellent in the air when teams would try to play long to escape Marinos’ press along with his excellent ball-handling ability that was evident from his time at Sagan Tosu. Both Ryuta Koike and Katsuya Nagato, as you may have already seen from the scenes above are important cogs in how Marinos play as they have to constantly mind their positioning relative to their wingers ahead of them and find the right pass to get the team up the pitch. In the Super Cup you would’ve seen Nagato quite inverted and positioned as a Center Midfielder in the build-up phase as Kota Watanabe and Takuya Kida moved deeper toward the Marinos Center Backs. This is pretty much what is expected of any Full Back on this Marinos team.
Before the Super Cup this was what I was planning on writing on Takuma Kamijima:
It was a bit curious to see Marinos of all teams acquiring Takuma Kamijima as his passing/on-ball ability is… not great. Indeed, he was partly to blame for Reysol not doing so well in this regard and probably why they were happy to let him go as they want to shift gears to become a more possession-oriented team. However, as I mentioned in the 2022 season review, Marinos suffered from lacking any sort of regular aerial presence outside of Eduardo, so I imagine that’s why Kamijima will play especially if Shinnosuke Hatanaka’s form continues to be mediocre.
But after watching the Super Cup I have more information to work off of on how Marinos want to use Takuma Kamijima, with the obvious caveats about the team currently missing all of their regular Right Backs, a pre-season friendly, etc. The awkwardness and hesitation that allowed opponents to take advantage in the past at Reysol weren’t really seen in the past weekend’s game. Clearly, having a better team structure around him where teammates are much more readily available to receive the ball (Kota Watanabe’s dropping movements was notable) helped Kamijima on the passing front. Still, with all respect it was “only” Ventforet Kofu and sterner tests will come as Marinos are set to play difficult opponents in Urawa Reds, Frontale, and Sanfrecce in their opening few games of the season. With both starting Right Backs set to be missing for potentially the next few games, it’ll be interesting how the situation of “Kamijima at Right Back” plays out alongside Marinos’ Back 3-ish shape in the build-up phase. It’s clear from the post-match interviews by Kevin Muscat and Kamijima himself that this is simply a temporary measure and that Kamijima should be aiming for a proper Center Back berth when everybody is back fit.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Can Marinos withstand the loss of 2 key players (Iwata and Takaoka) that formed a big part of their spine? Who among the new signings (Kamijima?) or the squad (Kota Watanabe? Obi?) will step up to the challenge in their place?
For all of Marinos’ success, they have never been able to assert their dominance across multiple competitions in a single year, can Marinos stretch their squad to not just win the league but possibly win a domestic or continental cup as well?
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: (1st) Yokohama F. Marinos, (2nd) Sanfrecce Hiroshima, (3rd) Kawasaki Frontale
Upper mid-table: (4th) Cerezo Osaka, (5th) FC Tokyo, (6th) Kashima Antlers, (7th) Urawa RedsMid-table: (8th) Vissel Kobe, (9th) Nagoya Grampus, (10th) Kashiwa Reysol, (11th) Sagan TosuLower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) Shonan Bellmare, (15th) Consadole SapporoRelegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
Overall, this team was by far the best team in terms of consistently creating quality chances on top of being in the top three for most defensive metrics as well. Even ignoring those kind of stats, they simply scored the most goals and conceded the least goals (well, tied with Nagoya)… so what more is there to say? They’ve lost a few key pieces in Tomoki Iwata and Yohei Takaoka but nevertheless what should be most important heading into the new season is that neither their tactical style nor their manager have changed.
While there are question marks over the quality of some of the new replacements like Uenaka, Inoue, and Kamijima, this is still quite a strong and deep squad overall with nearly two good players in nearly every position. With a good mixture of veterans and youngsters, all settling in under a manager that has now comfortably instilled his own style on the team I have Marinos finishing as champions of J1 once again.
Links
With the season starting now, you’ll see far fewer emails in your inbox as I’ll probably only be writing one or two J.League summary newsletters each month or so, with the occasional one highlighting a single match or player.
If you’ve read ALL 8 season preview newsletters for ALL 18 teams, thank you!