J.League 2023 Season Preview #6: FC Tokyo & Cerezo Osaka
Can either team make a push for a league and/or cup title in their manager's 2nd full season in charge?
Welcome to the fifth season preview newsletter for the 2023 J.League season!
J.League 2023 Season Preview #1: Yokohama FC, Albirex Niigata, & Kyoto Sanga
J.League 2023 Season Preview #2: Gamba Osaka, Avispa Fukuoka, & Vissel Kobe
J.League 2023 Season Preview #3: Shonan Bellmare & Sagan Tosu
J.League 2023 Season Preview #4: Consadole Sapporo & Urawa Reds
J.League 2023 Season Preview #5: Nagoya Grampus & Kashiwa Reysol
J.League 2023 Season Preview #7: Kashima Antlers & Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J.League 2023 Season Preview #8: Kawasaki Frontale & Yokohama F. Marinos
We’re starting from the J2 runner’s up (Yokohama FC) and then finishing off with last season’s J1 champions (Yokohama F. Marinos). I’ll be covering a lot of topics for each team from transfers, tactics, my personal questions for the teams, and of course league finish predictions (subject to change as I continue writing more previews). Please don’t take my league predictions too seriously as although I do take a lot of time thinking about it, my performance last year should tell you how wildly unpredictable the J.League can be…
Let’s get started!
FC Tokyo
Last Season (2022: 6th Place)
FC Tokyo’s first season under new management both on the footballing side with the arrival of Spanish manager (and former Barcelona academy director) Albert Puig and in club owners, MIXI, was a moderate success. The performance against title-holders Kawasaki Frontale in the 1st game of the season was an electric performance with Kuryu Matsuki making his professional debut, despite having only played at the high school level, and this game provided fans with a sweet taste of what this new Tokyo team could bring. Of course, the manager repeatedly mentioned the need for patience and despite early good results (Tokyo were 4th after matchday 10) some hard times followed in the summer with heavy defeats to Avispa Fukuoka, Sagan Tosu, and Urawa Reds as Tokyo’s players struggled to play in a drastically different way as in the past few seasons. This inconsistent form simply continued in the fall and despite a brief potential of a late run for a Champions League spot, FC Tokyo were resigned to a 6th place finish as they lost the last 2 games of the season, including a disappointing final matchday defeat to 10 man Kawasaki Frontale.
Transfers
Like a few other teams, most of their signings were done fairly quickly into the window. The only late addition, that was still in the “rumors” stage during the last newsletter, was Pedro Perotti who has been officially confirmed now.
Squad Composition
In goal is Jakub Slowik, next position.
The defense is pretty settled now with a clear back 4 (from Left to Right) of Kashif, Masato Morishige, Yasuki Kimoto, and Yuto Nagatomo. Henrique Trevisan coming back from a long-term injury is good news as FC Tokyo had to call Seiji Kimura back from loan last summer due to lack of backup options for the aging starting Center Back duo. Backing up Left Back to start the season, Shuhei Tokumoto will be a bit more experienced defensively and also a better passer than the young Kashif who will hope to continue growing as a more well-rounded player besides being a good crosser (you can find more on Kashif in a small section I wrote a few years ago). Hotaka Nakamura, rather than Junya Suzuki, will be second-in-line to Nagatomo on the Right.
Despite my misgivings, it’s quite clear that Keigo Higashi will still be the #6/single-pivot. Given this fact, I do feel like Takuya Aoki's days at the club are numbered due to both his age and coming back from a major injury lay-off it's quite likely he might get loaned out in the summer as Koizumi and possibly Tsubasa Terayama can fill in for Higashi as well. I had Kei Koizumi ear-marked as the clear upgrade signing in this position but it seems from pre-season training camp that he and Kuryu Matsuki are going to be the box-to-box midfielders instead. I’m a bit worried about Shuto Abe’s place in the squad especially with Koizumi looking to also play in the box-to-box role as Abe was already usurped by Koki Tsukagawa in the summer. With how physically taxing that position is though, I’m sure he’ll still get a decent amount of minutues even if he’s not a starter.
On the wings, it’ll most likely be Adailton and Teruhito Nakagawa. Both are extremely good on the dribble and carry a goal threat as well, which will be nice as last season only Adailton could be regularly relied upon for goals. The key difference between them is that Adailton is better at bringing the ball up from deeper areas and taking shots for himself (with occasional quick exchanges with fellow Brazilian, Diego, around the box) while Nakagawa is more of a final 3rd/box threat with better chance creation skills for others while still having some goal threat himself.
One concern I have with Nakagawa is his fitness to play week-in-week-out as a regular. Throughout his career he hasn’t been able to play a whole lot of total minutes in a single season, even if he appeared in most games. At Marinos he was managed very carefully outside of his stellar 2019 season with lots of rotation (see in the FBref link above how while he played in 31 games in 2022, he only started in 15 and his playing minutes totaled up to only 16.4 90s) but at FC Tokyo he will be expected to start pretty much every game, probably above 20 90s which is something he hasn’t had to do in the league for quite some time now. It may not be a big deal, especially with Ryoma Watanabe and Leandro available to take up the slack but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, Ryoma Watanabe can be used out wide as more of a floating #10 as his ability to find spaces even when dropping into deeper areas help FC Tokyo progress up the field in the build-up phase. Leandro will continue to carve his own path, playing to his own rhythm, and scoring outrageous… goals. He’ll be a nice change of pace when FC Tokyo want to go with full chaos mode instead.
Up top will be Diego Oliveira, whose 2022 season was cut short due to injury last October. I’m going to assume he’ll be fine for the opener as I haven’t heard anything to the contrary. Otherwise new signing Pedro Perotti will hope to make his mark while Adailton can fill in up top as well.
Playstyle
Manager Albert Puig, with his Barcelona roots, has been trying to instill the principles of positional play into an FC Tokyo team that was drastically different under Kenta Hasegawa and other previous managers. Taking care of the ball in possession, moving in concert with your teammates to dislodge your nearest markers to find and create space as you move up the field, etc.
When Kei Koizumi was announced I was really happy since I knew he can play as a single-pivot as well as in a double-pivot (see my Sagan Tosu section in the 2022 season review for details) and I thought he’d be displacing Keigo Higashi (who for his OK-to-decent ball-winning abilities hasn’t really contributed much in possession) but that doesn’t seem to be the case from pre-season reports. Clearly, Albert Puig prioritizes Koizumi’s opponent “disruption” abilities higher up the pitch rather than his ability to connect things from deeper which is reasonable, just not the choice I would make, but hey he knows more than I do obviously.
Further ahead in midfield were Kuryu Matsuki and Shuto Abe (until Tsukagawa arrived and displaced him in the summer). Kuryu Matsuki… he’s gonna be a big deal! Here’s what I wrote in the 2022 season review:
A star was born in Tokyo in the form of Kuryu Matsuki, who from his first game was already matching the intensity of seasoned professionals. His boundless energy was an asset, popping up deeper to help with the build-up and then make lung-bursting runs behind the defense in the same possession sequence. Matsuki also gradually got more disciplined as the season went on after an early string of early yellow card accumulations. A big room for improvement for both the teenager and fellow midfielder Shuto Abe is to start chipping in with more goals as they both improved upon making more dangerous runs into the box as the season progressed.
The Wingers are a key aspect of FC Tokyo’s attack:
On the wing, Teruhito Nakagawa should be a fantastic signing as a massive upgrade on Kazuya Konno (who left for Avispa Fukuoka to, in turn, replace Jordy Croux’s departure to Cerezo Osaka). A speedy dribbler who can operate on either wing, staying wide or crashing the back post to score from crosses, Nakagawa will be a key player next season provided he stays fit.
(From the Winter transfers newsletter on FC Tokyo)
Whatever happens, FC Tokyo can always “Hail Mary!” it to Adailton and he might just do everything himself…
The one big weakness has been how easy it’s been for opponents to press FC Tokyo. They do this by shaping their press to push FC Tokyo’s build-up out wide to a Full Back, and then completely shut the player down against the sideline.
Tokyo have gotten around this by using Kimoto and Morishige’s excellent long passing ability to escape opponent pressing or have had the single pivot drop between the Center Backs but neither is really the ideal solution for a team that wants to get simply better at building out from the back. Takuya Aoki splitting the Center Backs was rare because then Tokyo wouldn’t have enough midfield support further upfield and it would also pull everybody closer to Tokyo’s goal, which would make it even more easy for opponents to trap Tokyo in their own half.
The team also needs to make things easy/easier for Slowik to pass the ball around (quicker positioning, not forcing the ball back to him under pressure, etc. ) as the Polish goalkeeper isn’t going to magically improve his ball handling technique (we’re talkin’ about with his feet, not hands) at this stage of his career. In general, for a team that wants to keep the ball FC Tokyo really struggled against sides that simply sat back against them so it’s not just deeper in the build-up but also final 3rd creation that needs to be improved upon.
On the flip side, FC Tokyo’s high press… was somewhat successful at times, somewhat ineffective at others. Diego’s high defensive work rate is yet another reason why he was continuously selected despite his lack of goal-scoring.
When FC Tokyo were defending in their own box, they were mostly fine with crosses to the posts and cut-backs (away from the aerially dominant Center Backs) the only consistent concern. For all the talk of how useful Kimoto and Morishige are on the ball, I also think their strong defensive partnership has gone slightly under the radar.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
This is the season where FC Tokyo really need to make a run for the ACL spots if not at least be involved in the title race in some capacity, can they do it?
The manager has used cup competition for youth players to gain experience but with results more in focus for 2023, will we see some deeper cup runs?
After a very good season (not without its ups-and-downs in form of course), can Kuryu Matsuki continue to improve to get himself into the Paris Olympic squad picture or even in the main national team squad?
FC Tokyo haven’t scored over 50 goals since 2013… Who besides Adailton can come up with the goals in this team? Will Diego be able to pitch in more even though he as many other responsibilities? Or will it be one of the new signings like Perotti or Nakagawa? Can the midfielders contribute a bit more too?
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: (1st) t.b.a., (2nd) t.b.a, (3rd) t.b.a.Upper mid-table: (4th) t.b.a., (5th) FC Tokyo, (6th) t.b.a., (7th) Urawa Reds
Mid-table: (8th) Vissel Kobe, (9th) Nagoya Grampus, (10th) Kashiwa Reysol, (11th) Sagan TosuLower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) Shonan Bellmare, (15th) Consadole SapporoRelegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
2022 was full of ups-and-downs. FC Tokyo were able to keep themselves in the ACL race near the end of the season but I don't think it was ever realistic given how their performances were tethered to how well (or not) their opponent pressed their build-up, not to mention that fact that their ACL spot rivals all went through a horrendous patch of form to open up the race in the first place (Cerezo didn’t win any of their last 5 games of the season while Sanfrecce and Kashima only won once). There were lots of things that improved throughout the season but not really to the point where FC Tokyo were ever realistically challenging for anything.
This second season is the big test for Albert Puig and the signings of ready-made players like Koizumi and Nakagawa point to a “win now!” strategy while still blooding youngsters from the youth/high school/university teams. FC Tokyo will have taken pre-season to really sharpen their developing skillset and will try to make a concerted push for an ACL place and/or a cup title. With the strength of the teams in front of them however, they may “only” finish 4th or 5th but I think it can be far better points-wise and results/quality-wise than 2022.
Even if Albert Puig doesn’t manage to do this and is relieved of his duties (I personally would give him three full seasons but obviously depends on what’s happening on the pitch), it’s really important for Tokyo to continue on this path of a consistent style of play. Whatever happens this season or the next, the foundations that Albert Puig has built shouldn’t be completely thrown away by MIXI/Tokyo’s management if things do go awry.
Links
Cerezo Osaka
Last Season (2022: 5th Place)
Manager Akio Kogiku’s first full season (he took over from Levir Culpi in the summer of 2021) can be marked as a success, the club hierarchy certainly seem to think so as a week after the season ended the club announced they were continuing with him at the helm for 2023. Their start of the season was rather inconsistent but they really started building moment mid-season only losing twice in 14 games from May to August in a
8W-4D-2L
record that propelled the pink half of Osaka to 4th and within 3 points of 2nd placed Kawasaki Frontale after matchday 24. All despite a very public bust up between star player Takashi Inui and the manager which saw the ex-national team winger leave the team in June to go join Shimizu S-Pulse as a free agent in July.Unfortunately, it went all down hill after the first week of August as Cerezo only won twice in the last 10 games of the season, even going win-less in the last 6 games of the campaign to limp to a 5th place finish (their malaise only dropping them to 5th due to everybody else in the top half also in bad form). The one bright spot among this was another good League Cup run but yet again they fell at the last hurdle, this time against Sanfrecce Hiroshima in heartbreaking/dramatic fashion as they were denied victory by 2 goals in the 92nd and 97th minute of the 2nd half.
Transfers
The rumored move for Leo Ceara came to fruition and he'll be the main striker for this season. Jean Patric was stolen away by Vissel Kobe so Cerezo brought in Capixaba from Juventude. The big news in the past few weeks has been that Shinji Kagawa is back at Cerezo Osaka after 12 years in Europe! Yang H.B. also arrives as a back-up goalkeeper. A good transfer window!
Squad Composition
In goal is Kim J.H. as it has been for quite some time now with Keisuke Shimizu as the back up. The defense is also quite set (from Left to Right), Ryosuke Yamanaka, Ryuya Nishio, Matej Jonjic, and Riku Matsuda as the usual back 4. However, there is still some question marks over Nishio as Koji Toriumi was able to secure himself a starting berth for large parts of last season over the youngster.
In midfield Cerezo have 3 very good players fighting over 2 spots. Until his injury, it looked like Riki Harakawa took over Naoyuki Fujita’s seat next to midfield stalwart, Hiroaki Okuno, but Tokuma Suzuki settled right in after Harakawa’s injury and the competition there in pre-season is quite fierce. I imagine it will be Tokuma Suzuki’s spot to lose at the start of the season. The wide areas are where Cerezo saw the most change as Jordy Croux and Capixaba have entered the conversation as Jean Patric left and Seiya Maikuma is more likely to play back-up to Riku Matsuda more often this season. Hirotaka Tameda could yet keep his position on the Left due to his excellent defensive work-rate and finding good spaces to receive the ball, even if his penchant for missing the goal is concerning especially if Kiyotake is asked to take the #10 role more often in 2023.
Two of Leo Ceara, Mutsuki Kato, Satoki Uejo, and the returning Shota Fujio can play up top or one of them can be partnered by veteran creators like Hiroshi Kiyotake and Shinji Kagawa.
Overall, Cerezo improved their weaker points or reinforced them with more players (strikers & wingers), kept their squad depth intact with a good mix of youth and experience. I don’t know how much Rui Osako, Sakata, Nelson Ishiwatari, and Sota Kitano will play in the league but I imagine we’ll see them quite a bit in the League Cup group stages so that’s something to look forward to.
Playstyle
Cerezo Osaka have a penchant for long counters over the opponent defense line and crossing the ball to big strong aerially dominant strikers. They are also great at set pieces with many wonderful kickers in Tokuma Suzuki, Riki Harakawa, Ryosuke Yamanaka, and Hiroshi Kiyotake. Kim J.H. is an extremely important part of their build-up play as he is the one starting long counter attacks from deep in their own half or just generally spreading the ball about to the Full Backs well. If Cerezo can’t get it wide with their build-up, then they are happy with going a bit more direct, having their strikers make runs behind or duel with the Center Backs to lay the ball off as well.
When Cerezo are able to get the ball out wide, they are then extremely quick to get it up the field through the dribbling or off-the-ball running of their Full Backs and/or Wide Midfielders. Riku Matsuda and Ryosuke Yamanaka are extremely dangerous because of their ability to send in very curling early crosses into the box from very far away from goal. The strikers can also drift into the channels to support when it comes to longer balls from the back-line.
Cerezo’s high press was very effective, it was clear they did a lot of good scouting to find weaknesses in opponent build-ups. They had a pretty good record against teams like Frontale, Marinos, Urawa Reds, etc. all teams who really like to build up from the back. On the other hand, they seem to struggle when they have a majority of the possession and their big strikers are matched-up by the opponent completely retreating to their defensive 3rd.
Otherwise Cerezo form a pretty solid mid-block as a 4-4-2.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Following consecutive final defeats in the League Cup and going far in other competitions Cerezo have come mightily close but will this be the season they finally win their first title under Akio Kogiku?
Can they find their way past teams who are completely happy to give Cerezo the ball and can withstand their barrage of crosses? Maybe it’ll be up to Shinji Kagawa to come on as a sub to magic them out of a deadlock? On that note, how many minutes will Shinji Kagawa play?
Can anybody on this team, whether it’s a striker or otherwise get double-digits in goals? Can Leo Ceara turn his efficient production in limited playing time to someone that can contribute week-in-week-out more regularly?
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: (1st) t.b.a., (2nd) t.b.a, (3rd) t.b.a.Upper mid-table: (4th) Cerezo Osaka, (5th) FC Tokyo, (6th) t.b.a., (7th) Urawa Reds
Mid-table: (8th) Vissel Kobe, (9th) Nagoya Grampus, (10th) Kashiwa Reysol, (11th) Sagan TosuLower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) Shonan Bellmare, (15th) Consadole SapporoRelegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
While I’m pretty high on this squad as a whole, the end-of-season form was a bit of a concern. Of course, you could put Cerezo’s awful end-of-season form in part due to the fact that they kind of ran out of central midfielders. Their usual backup, Hinata Kida, had already been injured for most of the season. Riki Harakawa missed most of the 2nd half of the season. Then the iron man himself, Hiroaki Okuno, also got injured! So you basically only had Tokuma Suzuki as a real seasoned pro at center midfield. At one point they had to play Hiroshi Kiyotake in a double pivot (!) and also had to bring on 16 year old Nelson Ishiwatari which is obviously not optimal!
On the flip side, this Cerezo team still has problems when it comes to breaking down teams that just sit back and let them have the ball which means their good pressing strategies are also nullified. Also, Cerezo’s crossing strategy works because they go down the wing very quickly and curl in early crosses to their big strikers rather than simply catapulting it in against a set determined defense. Cerezo then still have their set-piece skills but relying on them too regularly isn’t optimal. If Leo Ceara gets injured then Cerezo’s attack is set back to last season again (well even worse since they don’t have Adam Taggart, Jean Patric, nor Hiroto Yamada anymore either) with Mutsuki Kato, for all his positives, is not a proven double-digit goal scorer while Shota Fujio has only played significant minutes in J2. If things go well, then I can imagine them being involved in the title race, finishing 3rd… or 2nd even but there’s still a few doubts in my mind and the strength of other teams that make me have them finishing 4th, but more importantly they’ll have more points and possibly more goals compared to 2022 (this is also why I don’t really enjoy predicting teams by placement because the actual points matter a lot more).
Links
That’s it for now!
For other J.League season preview content I’ll point y’all over to…
Next time I will be going over Kashima Antlers & Sanfrecce Hiroshima in Season Preview #7.
Thanks for reading!
Forgot to add the link to my blurb on Kashif a few years ago, fixed now... (you'll still have to Ctrl+F for "Kashif" though...)