J.League 2023 Season Preview #3: Shonan Bellmare & Sagan Tosu
Can Shonan continue their upward trajectory to break into the mid-table? After another transfer season of heavy squad turn-over can Tosu rebuild again?
Welcome to the third season preview newsletter for the 2023 J.League season!
J.League 2023 Season Preview #1: Yokohama FC, Albirex Niigata, & Kyoto Sanga
J.League 2023 Season Preview #2: Gamba Osaka, Avispa Fukuoka, & Vissel Kobe
J.League 2023 Season Preview #3: Shonan Bellmare & Sagan Tosu
J.League 2023 Season Preview #4: Consadole Sapporo & Urawa Reds
J.League 2023 Season Preview #5: Nagoya Grampus & Kashiwa Reysol
J.League 2023 Season Preview #7: Kashima Antlers & Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J.League 2023 Season Preview #8: Kawasaki Frontale & Yokohama F. Marinos
We’re starting from the J2 runner’s up (Yokohama FC) and then finishing off with last season’s J1 champions (Yokohama F. Marinos). I’ll be covering a lot of topics for each team from transfers, tactics, my personal questions for the teams, and of course league finish predictions. Please don’t take my league predictions too seriously as although I do take a lot of time thinking about it, my performance last year should tell you how wildly unpredictable the J.League can be…
Let’s get started!
Shonan Bellmare
Last Season (2022: 12th Place)
As usual, Shonan were mainly in the relegation dogfight for large parts of the season but they only lost twice in the last 10 (undefeated in the last 7) games to secure their 2nd best ever J.League finish at 12th place. Shuto Machino had a career break-out season as his newly found goal scoring exploits on top of his already existing chance creation skills saw him receive call-ups to first the EAFF Cup and then to the World Cup for the Japan National team.
Transfers
Being able to keep Shuto Machino at the club is probably their biggest transfer success this season, although I imagine he'll continue to have suitors for a potential summer switch if he keeps playing like he has in the past 12 months. On the other hand, they did lose Yusuke Segawa who was an extremely important part of their attack even if he had a penchant for missing the goal himself. Gamba's Kosuke Onose will be the big hope to fill that gap from either midfield or as a more threatening Right Wingback option than Hirokazu Ishihara.
In general, not a whole lot of new ins-or-outs since the winter transfers newsletter.
Squad Composition
Note: Junnosuke Suzuki and Sere Matsumura aren’t marked as (Y) as they joined from high schools in 2022 but barely played last season so still not sure how much they are actually being relied on for depth.
3-5-2
In goal will be the new signing, Song B.K. with Tomii providing able back-up as has been the case for the past few years. I don’t feel there will be changes at the back with Takuya Okamoto seemingly settling in as the Right Center Back now rather than at Wing Back. At wing-back we could see Kosuke Onose play there as he had done for Gamba in the past but otherwise it’s Hirokazu Ishihara on the Right and Yoshihiro Nakano on the Left. Taiga Hata (who I’ve written extensively on in the past) hasn’t quite developed as I had predicted these past few years with injury troubles and just simply not playing all that well.
In midfield, I’ve gone with the regulars from last year. The young Taiyo Hiraoka will hope to truly cement his place in the team through his keen positional sense in the final 3rd and creating chances for himself and others. Otherwise, Masaki Ikeda who has gradually impressed and gained game time after Satoshi Tanaka’s departure to Europe leaving an open spot in midfield will likely continue to play as the other box-to-box midfielder with stiff competition from Tarik, Naoki Yamada, and Hiroyuki Abe.
Up front is straightforward, it’ll be Shuto Machino and Keita Yamashita. Yuki Ohashi will come on in the 2nd Half to bring fresh legs but I’m not quite sure how much playing time Akito Suzuki and Yamato Wakatsuki will get.
3-4-2-1
Just a slight variation on their 3-5-2. As one of the midfielders plays slightly advanced or one of the strikers plays more of a support role. This formation is usually favored when the likes of Tarik and Hiroyuki Abe are played as they can start in more advanced positions.
Playstyle
Shonan cover all 5 lanes of the pitch and the midfield 3 do a lot of work closing down and shifting over side-to-side. Shonan have a structured high press and in tandem, keep their lines very compact as they look to squeeze the opposition at every opportunity. When teams try to play long balls behind their high line their defenders aren't the quality of... say the likes of Hayato Araki or Eduardo (of Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Yokohama Marinos, respectively) in aerial duels to knock back these attempts, but they make up for it by tracking back to form a deep block inside their own box to defend in numbers alongside their midfielders. A common weakness has been that it's easy to pin their wing backs very deep which can create ample spaces on either side of the midfield 3 for opponents to exploit.
While their defenders are tasked with lots of ball progression, they aren't afraid of booting it straight up the field either. Daiki Sugioka from the Left Center Back position does a lot of progressive passing/ball-carrying and is the catalyst for moving the ball into the middle/final 3rd of the pitch from the defense. With the way Shonan are so compact, it means they always have someone nearby to pick up second balls or press if the ball drops to an opponent.
On the ball, Shonan like to be quite quick. Performing little one-or-two touch passing moves from the likes of Tarik, Ikeda, Segawa (now at Frontale), and Hiraoka to get the ball into the final 3rd where the wingbacks provide a crossing threat into the box. Shuto Machino likes to get involved in this phase of play as well as he is fantastic at dropping back, laying off the ball, or even turning to thread through-balls diagonally to supporting runners. Shonan’s wingbacks are very important in providing the width in this otherwise narrow team. They do a lot of running to support the attack whether by crossing the ball themselves or making a run to the back post when the ball is on the opposite wing. When Shonan are able to keep possession in the final 3rd, the wider Center Back on the ball-near side gradually pushes up in support.
For all of Shonan's hard work, their end product has continuously disappointed in the past few seasons. There is hope that Shuto Machino's fine form in front of goal may continue (despite what xG might say about extended periods of over-performance with Machino scoring his 13 goals from just 6.34 xG last season) and the new loanee from FC Tokyo, Keita Yamashita might be able to contribute some as well. Outside of Machino, the next best Shonan goal scorers last season were 3 players… on 3 goals each… and one of them (Segawa) has left the team…
At the other end of the pitch, Shonan can get stuck defending their box for long periods of the game. When their backs are to the wall, I always feel like it’s only a matter of time before they concede. Even with players in the box, they don’t exactly defend that well with nearly half of their goals conceded coming from crossing or set-piece situations.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Yusuke Segawa is a big loss, can Kosuke Onose fill his creative boots? Or will somebody else like Taiyo Hiraoka or Masaki Ikeda improve themselves two-fold to pick up the slack?
Can Shuto Machino keep up his great finishing streak of the past 12 months? And/or maybe Keita Yamashita will take his FC Tokyo frustrations out on goal?
With Kosei Tani gone back to Gamba, lots of pressure will be on Song Bum-Keun after a big move from Korean champions, Jeonbuk Hyundai. Will he be able to impress enough at Shonan to earn a starting berth on his national team as well?
Was the good bit of form in the final months of the season a fluke? Or is it a sign of gradual improvement with Satoshi Yamaguchi at the helm?
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: 1st~3rdUpper mid-table: 4th~7thMid-table: (8th) Vissel Kobe, (9th) t.b.a., (10th) t.b.a., (11th) t.b.a.Lower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) Shonan Bellmare, (15th) t.b.a.
Relegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
Yet another team where I feel that there's just far worse teams rather than Shonan being particularly great. Of course, survival and/or a mid-table place is perfectly fine for Shonan when considering their relative lack of financial muscle compared to their richer Kanto region neighbors. A guarantee is that they'll work their socks off every match but concerns about Shonan's general quality at either end of the pitch means I can't really put them much higher than the lower mid-table band of 12th through 15th.
Links
Sagan Tosu
Last Season (2022: 11th Place)
During the 2021 off-season they were taken apart with starting XI players like Tomoya Koyamatsu, Noriyoshi Sakai, Yuta Higuchi, Keiya Sento, Daichi Hayashi, Ayumu Ohata, Keita Yamashita, and Eduardo all departing the club. Yet, they continued to surprise as they finished comfortably in mid-table as they unearthed some gems from the lower divisions such as Fukuta, Horigome, and Harada while also bringing out the best of young players (Kikuchi, Honda) and other team's unwanted squad members (Naganuma, Iwasaki, Ono). The fact that winding up in 11th actually seemed a bit disappointing is mainly due to the fact that Tosu only won 2 of their last 10 games and were also winless in their last 6 games of the 2022 season.
Transfers
Not a whole lot has changed since the winter transfers newsletter.
Squad Composition
Hybrid 3-4-2-1 // 4-4-2
In the past few seasons, Tosu have had an interesting lopsided shape where the Left Wing Back becomes a wide midfielder or even striker while the entire back 3 shifts over and the Right Wing Back turns into a Right Back. At other times, especially in the build-up, one of the midfielders drops into the back line and the wider CBs both become Full Backs as well. Tosu is a really interesting team to watch how they morph their team's shape from attack-to-defense, defense-to-attack, and also to opposition line-ups. Manager Kenta Kawai has been saying throughout pre-season that they’ll continue to use both a back 3 and back 4.
In goal, as ever, it’ll be Park I.G. In defense it’s likely new signing Kosuke Yamazaki joining up with Hwang S.H. and the young Shinya Nakano. I expect a lot more from Nakano after spending the past few seasons playing second fiddle to Ayumu Ohata (now at Urawa Reds) and Diego (now at Kashiwa). At wing-back, the regulars from last season, Yuto Iwasaki and Yoichi Naganuma, should start while Wataru Harada will provide back up there and at Right Center Back. Ryonosuke Kabayama could also play in the hybrid winger/wing-back role as well.
In midfield Akito Fukuta will be joined by any one of So Kawahara, Kohei Tezuka, Naoyuki Fujita and possibly Anthony Akumu. In the attacking midfielder positions I imagine it’ll still be Fuchi Honda and Taichi Kikuchi as it was last season while Jun Nishikawa will hope to break in so that Cerezo Osaka will want to bring him back sooner rather than later.
Up top saw a lot of turnover as last season’s top scorers in Taisei Miyashiro and Yuki Kakita both returned to their parent clubs. In their place Cayman Togashi (from J2 side Vegalta Sendai) and Ayumu Yokoyama (from J3 side Matsumoto Yamaga) should compete for the starting berth.
Playstyle
Tosu really like to keep the ball, starting from their goalkeeper, Park I.G., who is actively involved in possession and also sweeping in behind Tosu's high-line.
Tosu’s back 3 or back 4 spread out while midfielders drop to receive depending on the situation and makes it hard (not impossible, though) to steal the ball off of them in the build-up. They have to improvise and change things up a lot as smart teams will find ways to beat them given enough time.
From midfield, Akito Fukuta orchestrates things from deep while further up the pitch he can also have a closer impact on the goal through his pin-point accurate set pieces and crosses (he finished with a team-leading 7 assists).
A common weakness not just with Tosu but other teams using wing-backs is that if they are pinned back deep enough, it allows the opposition to carry the ball past Tosu’s high press and keep Tosu from being able to keep the play away from their own goal.
Eyes from bigger clubs will continue to be on Fuchi Honda and Taichi Kikuchi as their ability to find spaces as passing options and their chance creation skills were vital to Tosu once they were able to get the ball into the middle and final 3rd of the pitch.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Can they continue their streak of building/re-building year-on-year to (eventually, if ever) push higher up the table consistently? ...or will one day, Tosu won't be able to replace enough of their talents and things start to get dicey like in 2019?
Will Fuchi Honda and Taichi Kikuchi continue improving? Will having seen Taichi Fukui leap-frog them both by (mostly) skipping the J.League and going straight to Europe light a fire under them?
Who will take up the midfield spot next to Akito Fukuta? So Kawahara is coming off a fantastic season with Roasso Kumamoto while Kohei Tezuka has already spent the 2nd half of the 2022 season getting accustomed to Tosu’s playstyle following a summer move from Yokohama FC.
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: 1st~3rdUpper mid-table: 4th~7thMid-table: (8th) Vissel Kobe, (9th) t.b.a., (10th) Sagan Tosu, (11th) t.b.a.
Lower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) Shonan Bellmare, (15th) t.b.a.Relegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
Once again, quite a few key players have left or returned to their parent clubs. Still, punching above their weight giving their financial standing and usually with an attractive style of play to boot has been a big reason why neutrals continue favoring them. After embarrassing myself last season by thinking they would finish in the bottom 3 (mostly because seeing Eduardo leave so close to the start of the season on top of everybody else that had already left spooked me), this time around I have them anywhere between 8th to 11th, smack dab in the middle of the table.
Links
That’s it for now!
For other J.League season preview content I’ll point y’all over to…
Next time I will be going over Consadole Sapporo and Urawa Reds in Season Preview #4.
Thanks for reading!