J.League 2023 Season Preview #2: Gamba Osaka, Avispa Fukuoka, & Vissel Kobe
Will Dani Poyatos' positional play blossom at Gamba Osaka? Can Avispa Fukuoka return to their 2021 levels of form? How will Vissel Kobe atone for the mistakes of the 2022 season?
Welcome to the second season preview newsletter for the 2023 J.League season!
J.League 2023 Season Preview #1: Yokohama FC, Albirex Niigata, & Kyoto Sanga
J.League 2023 Season Preview #2: Gamba Osaka, Avispa Fukuoka, & Vissel Kobe
J.League 2023 Season Preview #3: Shonan Bellmare & Sagan Tosu
J.League 2023 Season Preview #4: Consadole Sapporo & Urawa Reds
J.League 2023 Season Preview #5: Nagoya Grampus & Kashiwa Reysol
J.League 2023 Season Preview #7: Kashima Antlers & Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J.League 2023 Season Preview #8: Kawasaki Frontale & Yokohama F. Marinos
We’re starting from the J2 runner’s up (Yokohama FC) and then finishing off with last season’s J1 champions (Yokohama F. Marinos). I’ll be covering a lot of topics for each team from transfers, tactics, my personal questions for the teams, and of course league finish predictions. Please don’t take my league predictions too seriously as although I do take a lot of time thinking about it, my performance last year should tell you how wildly unpredictable the J.League can be…
Let’s get started!
Gamba Osaka
Last Season (2022: 15th Place)
It was supposed to be a new dawn for Gamba Osaka but once again it turned into a nightmare as Tomohiro Katanosaka couldn't train the team to his playstyle while key players at either end of the pitch, Masaaki Higashiguchi and Takashi Usami also suffered from medium-to-long term injuries. Gamba just about managed to survive as they finished a mere point above regional rivals Kyoto in the relegation playoff spot but the disappointment these past few seasons has been palpable. Gamba have now turned to Dani Poyatos from Tokushima Vortis to turn their fortunes around and it's quite a good time to do so as there will only be one team relegated from J1 this season.
Transfers
Since my winter transfers post on Gamba, all of the signings that had been rumored have come true as Issam Jebali, Riku Handa, Yusei Egawa, and Neta Lavi (finally...) have officially joined the Osaka club.
Squad Composition
Official squad announcement (they didn't seem to have an official announcement news post so this is just their squad list on the website)
4-3-3 // 4-4-1-1
As you might expect from a Dani Poyatos team, it's very likely that Gamba will be playing in a 4-3-3. More interesting is how the existing players will fit into this formation. Of particular interest is Takashi Usami. From pre-season reports it looks like he is playing deeper as part of a midfield 3 but I surmise that especially on the defensive, he'll shift over to a central spot behind or next to the striker so that Gamba defend in a 4-4-1-1/4-4-2 shape. We've seen how diluted Usami's influence becomes when he's played out on the wing in the past so I believe this will be a way to avoid having to do that (I still imagine he'll play there in rotation if Meshino isn't available). Otherwise, it's pretty crowded in central midfield especially with Usami there now. With Neta Lavi, Rihito Yamamoto, and Okuno all being specialists in that #6 position I have a feeling that Dawhan (and Rihito Yamamoto once Neta Lavi is up to speed) will instead play slightly advanced as one of the box-to-box midfielders.
The new signings and existing players in all other positions are fairly straightforward I feel. The big question is who wins the battle between the posts, veteran Masaaki Higashiguchi or Kosei Tani? I imagine it's Higashiguchi who will start out the season in goal and it'll be up to Kosei Tani to keep challenging him throughout, but without much insight into their pre-season training it's very up in the air for me.
In defense, the senior members of the team are Genta Miura and Kwon K.W. and I imagine they’ll be the starters. Still, given the ball-playing skills of new signings Yusei Egawa as well as Shota Fukuoka (who was a regular for Vortis under Dani Poyatos in the 2021 season) could see them given the nod if they show themselves to be far more adept at handling the build-up play. The Left Back we have Keisuke Kurokawa who has been very good as an attacking outlet on the wing while on the Right, we’ll likely see Riku Handa start as I’ve never been quite convinced by Ko Yanagisawa and Ryu Takao hasn’t quite kicked on since his good 2020 season.
In attack things are a bit crowded with at least 3 options on either wing as Juan Alano and Hideki Ishige can play out wide as well. Starting up top should be star signing, Issam Jebali.
Playstyle
Possession, position, possession.
Dani Poyatos has been in Japan for 2 years now with Tokushima Vortis, so I think most J.League fans know what to expect from him. I feel like what gets lost amid all the talk about Poyatos' Vortis not scoring enough (which is still absolutely true) is how on the other hand, how defensively solid they have been, albeit in J2. Vortis kept the ball so much that opponents barely got a shot off against them, let alone even take an opportunity to attack them in the first place! Even when Vortis won the ball back, they wouldn't normally counter quickly, preferring to settle things to their pace and then build up slowly. For a Gamba team that struggled defensively (close if not actually worst in most defensive metrics), I think it will be good that they focus on defending well with-and-without the ball first, even if people will inevitably complain about 'boring sideways football'.
The attack could use a lot more work from last season from both Gamba and Vortis’ perspective. Without even getting into Vortis’ shot quality/finishing efficacy (as I didn't collect any xG data from J2 last season), simply put they were fairly mid-table in J2 for shots per game and goals per game. Their attack hinged on creating good conditions (like the methods I talked about in Albirex Niigata’s preview) from which their attackers (like Nishiya) can take people 1v1 on the dribble to create chances. Now at Gamba, Poyatos does have much better players so they might actually be alright by being able to finish the fairly low amount of attacks that this team may mount against the opposition. Or simply by having better players, Gamba might be more productive and convert their possession to more attacks compared to what Vortis achieved. Good dribblers like Usami, Yamami, and Meshino will be key in this regard. Being able to attack better in open-play will be mightily important as last season Gamba Osaka scored a whopping 27.3% of their total goals from set-piece situations (and with how little Gamba scored in total, that still only tallied up to 9 goals…).
This turned into a Vortis playstyle section but by all accounts that's what Dani Poyatos will try to do at Gamba. From pre-season footage available they are working a lot on their possession structure and the spacing/relationships between the players in relation to the ball. The Spaniard will have his work cut out for a Gamba team that really struggled to get to grips with this sort of things under Katanosaka and in general, a team that most people wouldn't have been surprised if they were relegated last season.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Can Dani Poyatos bring the necessary changes to Gamba's possession game that Katanosaka struggled with last season? It may be rough seas at first so will Gamba's hierarchy stay calm even if results aren't going their way?
After a long injury layoff, will we see the best of Takashi Usami once again?
Kosei Tani vs. Masaaki Higashiguchi: it's a long season and both players will definitely play but who will come out on top by the end of the season?
With other youngsters such as Isa Sakamoto and Harumi Minamino away on loan, out of Hiroto Yamami, Jiro Nakamura, and Dai Tsukamoto who will be the one to usurp the bigger names in the squad to gain meaningful playing time? Or will it be someone like Ibuki Konno?
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: 1st~3rdUpper mid-table: 4th~7thMid-table: 8th~11thLower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) t.b.a., (15th) t.b.a.
Relegation Strugglers: (16th) t.b.a., (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
It will take time for Gamba's players, who only recently failed to take on a more structured possession-oriented style of play under Katanosaka, to gel. So the big question is whether in the meantime, Gamba's quality players like Usami can squeeze out a few good results so they're not in another relegation fight while the team is in the middle of leveling up. I still think they are quite a few worse teams than Gamba (even one in transition yet again), so at worst they'll be lower mid-table but they can easily finish in mid-table (as high as 8th maybe?) if things click quickly. Or they could go on a winning run near the end of the season like Vortis last season as the players gradually get used to the new style. Come what may, they are a team to keep an eye on this season for sure.
Links
Avispa Fukuoka
Last Season (2022: 14th Place)
It really wasn't a season to remember for Avispa Fukuoka. Some people might say "second season syndrome" but the reality was pretty clear. Their already limited attack became way worse and their defense couldn't withstand the added pressure from opponents who were not nearly as troubled in defending their own goal. Manager Shigetoshi Hasebe's squad were struck with a COVID crisis in the summer as well while (relatively) big transfers like Lukian and Tatsuya Tanaka didn't really come off as expected. In the end, Avispa grinded out 3 Wins from their last 5 games of the season to stay afloat that gave them some time to reflect on what needed to be improved.
Transfers
Winter transfers: Avispa Fukuoka (published on Dec. 26, 2022)
Since my winter transfers newsletter, Naoki Wako's contract was not renewed and in return, Itsuki Oda has joined very recently to add more bodies at Full Back. Up top, Daiki Watari left the club and Tokyo Verdy's Ryoga Sato came in to provide some competition. I’ll talk about their main transfers, Konno and Kamekawa a bit later.
Squad Composition
4-4-2
Compact, tight, your classic 4-4-2.
I was initially concerned about the lack of cover at Left Back with only new signing Masashi Kamekawa there. But I imagine Itsuki Oda, who played primarily at Left Back when he was at JEF United a few years ago, along with Yuzawa and Maejima will probably cover Left Back throughout the season.
Same story further forward as there are only 3 “actual” wide midfielders available (plus Tsuruno, who is a university graduate and a player I don’t have much info on), so will Sotan Tanabe, Maejima, or Lukian (like last season) fill in? Or Avispa may simply go with a 3-4-2-1 more often with Yamagishi and Lukian supporting the striker and the width coming from the wingbacks? From what I can tell Ryoga Sato can also play out wide as well so maybe there's enough cover out wide than I initially thought. I put Tatsuya Tanaka on the left as that’s where he usually played last season but he can play on either side.
3-4-2-1
A shape that appeared occasionally, mostly when going up against opponents using a back 3 (3-5-2/3-4-2-1 like Reysol or Sapporo), maybe we’ll see it show up a lot more frequently?
Playstyle
Physicality, wide players dribbling, crosses-crosses-crosses
I mentioned last year that they started to press high a bit more and while that was true they also weren't very successful at it, at least in regard to counterattacking and getting shots from these situations. I feel like it was more of a delaying action to give time for the rest of Avispa's players to get back into their lines. A lot of the 'pressing' from the forwards was more of the type where the player backtracks, following a forward pass made by opponent defenders, and attempt to sandwich opponent midfielders from behind. The signing of Ryoga Sato, who did a lot of pressing/winning the ball from the front for Tokyo Verdy makes sense in this regard as well.
A lot of their chance creation relies on crossing, endless amounts of crossing. Their wide players were tasked with creating small openings in the opponent’s defense to swing a cross in through their dribbling skills or passing it through to a Full Back that’s made an overlapping run. In this regard, Kazuya Konno will be a straight replacement for Jordy Croux as they have very similar profiles: A left footed dribbler that likes to cut in from the right. To replace Shichi at Full Back is Masashi Kamekawa who has joined from Yokohama FC, he’ll bring a bit more dribbling/carrying and passing from the defense line to an Avispa team that would like to be able to progress up the field without simply resorting to long balls.
On the receiving end up top, we have the likes of Yuya Yamagishi, Lukian, and John Mary. Yuya Yamagishi in particular has been excellent in the past few seasons as Avispa’s best goal scorer and his all-around play in being able to receive difficult long passes or crosses is a boon to a team that needs to make the most out of their relatively few attacks.
Any newsletter on Avispa Fukuoka won’t be complete without talking about Hiroyuki Mae. He is the heartbeat of this team and is extremely important on both sides of the ball. Extremely tough and aggressive to win the ball back and then playing those incisive balls into the final 3rd from his own half, Mae is the player that acts as a switch in Avispa’s transitions from defense-to-attack.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Avispa have consistently lost key pieces in the past few seasons in Emil Salomonsson, Jordy Croux, Juanma Delgado, and Takaaki Shichi. Are their latest replacements good enough to plug the gaps on a now-struggling team?
Masaaki Murakami suffered a big dip in form that resulted in him being dropped for a number of games last season, can he return to his 2021 form?
Despite what the stats might say (check my 2022 season review for the xG stuff), I really wasn't nearly as impressed with Avispa's defending in 2022 compared to 2021. It's a worrying trend considering their attacking output, which was never great to begin with, fell off a cliff last season. Attacking and defending are different sides of the same coin, will improving their defense also start the engine on a stuttering attack?
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: 1st~3rdUpper mid-table: 4th~7thMid-table: 8th~11thLower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) t.b.a., (15th) t.b.a.Relegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
I feel they are going to struggle again this season. In a normal year this will see them relegated but there's only one relegation spot this season so they'll survive even if they finish 16th, which is where I have them.
Links
Vissel Kobe
Last Season (2022: 13th Place)
It was a harrowing 2022 season for Vissel Kobe where for a large proportion of it, the team was staring relegation right in the face as they went win-less in their first 11 league games of the season. Kobe went through three separate managers (the incumbent Atsuhiro Miura, interim coach/manager Lluis Planaguma, and Miguel Angel Lotina) before the club turned to Takayuki Shinoda who finally led them to safety with good results in the last 10-or-so games of the season.
Transfers
After posting a meme about Kobe's lack of transfer activity in my winter transfers newsletter back in December, well… the club went and got quite a few players! Yutaro Oda left for Heart of Midlothian. To supplement the numbers out wide, Jean Patric arrived (out of nowhere!) from Cerezo Osaka as well as Shuhei Kawasaki on loan from Portimonense. Kobe fans can also breathe a sigh of relief as Matheus Thuler was finally signed on a permanent basis after some good performances to shore up Kobe's defense on loan last season. To reinforce the center of the park, Mitsuki Saito, joins on-loan from Shonan after spending the past year at Gamba and should allow Leo Osaki to cover Center Back more easily, especially when you consider the return to full fitness of all the other central midfielders.
Squad Composition
Official squad announcement (January 6th)
4-4-2 // 4-4-1-1 // 4-2-3-1
This was how Kobe managed to survive last season. It's basically a 4-4-2 but you can interpret it slightly differently depending on who is playing alongside the out-and-out striker.
There shouldn’t be any changes in goal with Daiya Maekawa the incumbent. Yuki Honda can play at Left Back as well, which should allow either one of Gotoku Sakai and Ryo Hatsuse to cover at Right Back when Yamakawa or even Nanasei Iino aren’t available.
The midfield gets tricky and is really dependent on whether they stick to the 4-4-2 or switch back to a 3-man midfield. Either way, Hotaru Yamaguchi should absolutely start regardless. Then, it’ll most likely be Sergi Samper and/or Mitsuki Saito alongside him. Out wide Koya Yuruki is the best choice on the Left while on the Right we could have Nanasei Iino if he’s not played further back along with Yoshinori Muto and Shuhei Kawasaki.
Up top, it’s Yuya Osako, Yoshinori Muto, and Stefan Mugosa in that order with Andres Iniesta playing as a #10 behind one of them or deeper in a midfield three. Guys like Daiju Sasaki and Yuya Nakasaka will plug gaps anywhere in midfield or attack.
4-3-3
With the amount of central midfielders available, and especially the return of the two Spaniards, there's every possibility that Vissel Kobe will return to playing 4-3-3 as well.
Playstyle
I'm going to talk more about how Takayuki Yoshida set up Kobe and led them to safety last season rather than whatever those three other managers were attempting to do...
Like I talked about in the 2022 season review, Vissel Kobe switched to a more direct 4-4-2 mid-block around mid-season-ish. They let Nanasei Iino, Yoshinori Muto, Gotoku Sakai, and Koya Yuruki make lots of runs and/or dribbles out wide and crossing it into the box. Koya Yuruki in particular was probably Kobe’s best signing in 2022 as his excellent dribbling ability on the Left Wing meant it was a lot more easier to break down opponent defenses. During the summer, Kobe brought in Nanasei Iino to emulate that on the opposite side but for next season it remains to be seen whether he’ll continue playing in midfield or as a very attacking Full Back in the back 4.
Yuya Osako, when fit, was still very good doing his usual hold-up play things.
Meanwhile Hotaru Yamaguchi and Leo Osaki held down the midfield with their toughness and ball-winning ability in the air and on the ground. Ryuho Kikuchi, who took a while to get back into form as he had suffered an injury in pre-season, slowly improved alongside both Yuki Kobayashi (who's performances led to a transfer to Celtic) and Matheus Thuler. Gotoku Sakai ended up being one of Kobe’s most important players last season due to his 1v1 defensively ability and acting as a useful conduit for when Vissel Kobe needed to get up the pitch.
But what about next season...? From their transfer dealings, it's clear they realize that having a supply of fast wingers is important, a position Kobe had completely neglected once Atsuhiro Miura shifted the team to a diamond 4-4-2 back in 2021, to catastrophic results when that formation stopped being effective. Mitsuki Saito coming in lowers the average age of an otherwise talented but quite old central midfield.
It's safe to say that Vissel Kobe will play both a 4-3-3 and 4-4-2 throughout the season depending on their available personnel and their opposition. I imagine they will revert to a more possession-oriented style but being a lot more flexible compared to the past by allowing for more direct attacks down the wing when the situation suits them. Sergi Samper being back to control things in the middle of the park should help in this regard (you can see lots of good examples of him doing so in my past season reviews: 2021, 2022), although as a team they still struggle a bit when even moderately pressed.
Storylines & Prediction
Main Questions
Will Takayuki Yoshida keep going with the fairly successful 4-4-2 or will the return of the star Spanish duo of Sergi Samper and Andres Iniesta from injury prompt the manager to switch back to a 4-3-3? This team is really at a crossroads, considering Andres Iniesta's contract runs out after this season (allegedly, according to Transfermarkt).
Can Kobe rely on Yuya Osako’s fitness? Alternatively, Stefan Mugosa has flattered to deceive so far despite the quality he showed in the K-League, but will he get more chances? Where does Yoshinori Muto fit into this conversation, will he simply play out wide even more next season?
How many minutes will Andres Iniesta play? Especially considering his injury problems in the past season and the fact that Kobe have to do a lot of accommodating (especially defensively) for him when he's on the pitch.
Will Vissel Kobe formulate a medium-to-long term plan to consistently be a top 3 or even just a top 6 J.League team in the next few years? (Any problems to Rakuten’s finances would also cause reverberate to Vissel Kobe as well…)
Predicted League Finish
Top 3: 1st~3rdUpper mid-table: 4th~7thMid-table: (8th) Vissel Kobe, (9th) t.b.a., (10th) t.b.a., (11th) t.b.a.
Lower mid-table: (12th) Gamba Osaka, (13th) Albirex Niigata, (14th) t.b.a., (15th) t.b.a.Relegation Strugglers: (16th) Avispa Fukuoka, (17th) Kyoto Sanga, (18th) Yokohama F.C.
Despite the problems of last season, this squad is still full of talent, without even mentioning Andres Iniesta! However, the winning run that saved them from relegation showed how well they can play without him (and to a lesser extent Sergi Samper) so their league performance really depends on Main Question #1. Will Yoshida be able to find a perfect fit for Iniesta much like how previous manager Atsuhiro Miura concocted a diamond midfield to suit the Spanish superstar or will he be forced to play him to the detriment of the team's function? This is why I have them in mid-table, I think they will have learned from the mistakes of past seasons and they can still purely win games on talent alone, but are they really good enough to challenge for the ACL spots, yet alone the league title?
Links
That’s it for now!
For other J.League season preview content I’ll point y’all over to…
Next time I will be going over Shonan Bellmare and Sagan Tosu in Season Preview #3.
Thanks for reading!
Thanks for your work again! Avispa has 3 quality CBs and should be making use of that more, I think a 3-4-3 shape suits them very well with all the profiles they have in the squad.
so amazing work,just want some information for J2 league,It's okay to get paid