2026 World Cup (Round of 32): Japan vs. Brazil Preview
The long awaited rematch of the Samurai Blue and the Seleção at the World Cup
Japan advanced from Group F with fairly good results on the field, finishing 2nd, but Takefusa Kubo’s injury brought to the fore, once again, the debates about depth in various key positions1. Group F and Group C were paired up together in the knockout bracket which has resulted in some juicy encounters early on. It’s a fixture that holds a lot of sentimentality from either side as Brazil have historically been a major influence on Japanese football. This will be the first competitive match2 between the two nations since the 2006 World Cup.
If you want more of an audio version, I helped The Copa Club Podcast preview the game:
Let’s get started!
Japan play with a Front 3 that’s quite narrow out-of-possession. The striker, Ayase Ueda, is usually tasked against “elite” opponents is to sit slightly deeper than the other attackers and man-mark the opponent’s pivot player. Against the Netherlands it was Frenkie de Jong and versus Brazil it should be Casemiro. The defensive role of the striker here will also be to prevent lay-offs and passes inside into Casemiro after the ball has moved forward so they’ll need to back track a lot.
The pair of wide #10s behind the striker will sit narrow to prevent Brazil’s other midfielders in the half-spaces (Paqueta, Bruno) from receiving when dropping deeper and playing quick combinations to break Japan’s block. Occasionally, these attackers will press to force the ball from the opponent’s Center Backs to out wide to the Full Backs, then pincer them with the Wing Back to create high turnovers and counterattacks (occasionally making the block look more like a 4-4-2).
However, I don’t think Japan will press very high and much like in the Netherlands game, Moriyasu will try to progress the game slowly and cautiously to conserve energy. I think pressing high against this Brazil side is quite dangerous as nearly all of their players have extremely good technical ability under pressure. Their dribbling and combination play can open up spaces in Japan’s block and create chances. Brazil also have two very good Center Backs in Gabriel and Marquinhos who can carry the ball forward from the back and create dilemmas for Japan’s attackers. Japan needs to be careful in dealing with them as Center Back carries were how Sweden scored their equalizing goal. Pushing forward to press high also means giving Vinicius Jr. and the other attackers larger spaces to hit the space behind Japan’s defenders. I think that Brazil will also not press high (their front line aren’t very high intensity anyway), sit in more of a mid-block themselves to bait Japan to push forward.
Much like how Takefusa Kubo helped the Wing Back Ritsu Doan against Cody Gakpo, I think Daizen Maeda or whoever starts as the Right side #10 will double-team against Vinicius Jr. Ideally the Back 3 defenders won’t get pulled out of the center to help out as that can leave spaces centrally for the smart movement of Cunha or the Brazilian midfielders pushing forward to exploit gaps.
I’m also toying with the idea of playing Takehiro Tomiyasu as a Wing Back, having Ritsu Doan as the Right-side #10, and Tsuyoshi Watanabe as the Right Center Back. This covers the multi-layered defense against Vinicius Jr., Doan covers the absence of Kubo while also being very diligent in defense, and it also means both Yukinari Sugawara and Junya Ito can be kept as fresh legs off the bench. This shape with this personnel can shift easily into a Back 4 as well when the situation demands.
There are a lot of different ways Moriyasu can set the team up though, even with the limitation of Kubo being unavailable. I’ve constantly rethought and changed my potential starting XI a million times in my head over the past few days… Whatever it is, I really do think Tomiyasu is going to be key wherever he plays.
Brazil’s biggest threat will be the world-class individual quality of their attackers3 who can create magical moments out of nothing. Despite how well Japan might be able to defend as a unit, the hard work of the collective might all be undone in a single moment. One of the biggest drawbacks to Japan’s 3-4-2-1 is that it puts a lot of strain on the Wing Backs so they might get too exhausted to support the attack. Maintaining compactness and focus through the clever and timely use of substitutions is going to be very important which will push Moriyasu’s managerial skills to its limit.
In previous generations, Japan have usually fallen flat in the fourth game of the tournament because we spent a lot of energy in each group game to get results. However, it’s quite clear that at this World Cup, Japan were able to rotate somewhat well and also play without having to go with the frenetic press-and-transition style like in 2022, all of which should support our defensive efforts for this upcoming game.
In possession, given how Brazil has shifted to using a diamond midfield formation, there is space out wide in front of their Full Backs to exploit. Given how Casemiro among others can be a bit late shifting across to support, the key for Japan will be to quickly create overloads against Brazil’s Full Backs with the Wing Backs and midfielders to enter the final 3rd. Takehiro Tomiyasu and Hiroki Ito are very good on the ball and their ability in the build-up, then pushing forward to combine with the Wing Backs and attackers further forward will be important. Ideally, Japan can create overloads on the wings in the final 3rd with the attacking midfielders on the opposite side drifting over to support (like Kubo in the lead-up to the first goal vs. The Netherlands). From there Japan can try to pull Brazil’s Center Backs out of position which can create space for late box runs from Ao Tanaka or Daichi Kamada to take shots from crosses or cut-backs. Given how Brazil’s back-line and midfield shifts, quick long diagonal switches to the “weaker” side and crosses to the far post might be effective as well. Of course, it remains to be seen just how often and how long Japan will be able to have the ball to do this sort of damage...
Japan vs. Brazil is perhaps wasted as a Round of 32 clash and feels more like a Quarter Final. It’s poised to be an absolute classic!4
Thanks for reading!
Uhh sorry, I did not have time for a Sweden game review.
Depends if you want to label the 2013 Confederations Cup as competitive I suppose.
Including a particular a guy called Neymar, I’m sure you’ve heard of him!
To be honest, I don’t really care how Japan play as long as we win somehow. I’m getting quite tired of the “worthy, unfortunate, plucky losers” tag.